Fifa International · resolved market
Paraguay leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2569c3fa5c7b7aeea4d5e2beb28e02a7794bd9963efa9aa2020c269125171de3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked No | 80c | 4,004$3,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$800.74 | 744 | 47.8%356 W · 388 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2117…5c26backed Yes | 20c | 3,970$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.1 | 1,985 | 32.5%645 W · 1,340 L | -47.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 80c | 2,348$1,878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.54 | 3,696 | 36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L | -44.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 80c | 1,558$1,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.6 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…d26cbacked Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 549 | 17.9%98 W · 451 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2588…10e0backed Yes | 20c | 1,500$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 20c | 1,099$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.83 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes | 20c | 959.4$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.88 | 3,992 | 24.9%994 W · 2,998 L | -47.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Yes | 20c | 590.9$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.46 | 2,439 | 29%707 W · 1,732 L | -65.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d90…7e0abacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x99c9…4c22backed Yes | 20c | 473.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.93 | 160 | 32.5%52 W · 108 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 19c | 464.78$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.31 | 4,457 | 37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L | +31.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 12c | 372.94$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.29 | 4,595 | 40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L | -91.3wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 313.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.1 | 2,626 | 41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Yes | 9c | 272.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 2,973 | 28%831 W · 2,142 L | -132.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e83…3bb7backed Yes | 20c | 259.9$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1,206 | 32.7%394 W · 812 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 80c | 250.01$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.63 | 1,616 | 51.2%827 W · 789 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe569…e759backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 524 | 41.4%217 W · 307 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…5906backed Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535f…a83bbacked Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 105 | 23.8%25 W · 80 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6435…e868backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 200 | 14.5%29 W · 171 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…cad2backed Yes | 8c | 199.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 112 | 24.1%27 W · 85 L | -10.3wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -28%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b45…362bbacked Yes | 12c | 149.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 981 | 34.8%341 W · 640 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd78…3c84backed Yes | 20c | 143.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.7 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98d7…f41abacked Yes | 20c | 103.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 257 | 48.6%125 W · 132 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e64…9cb7backed Yes | 20c | 102.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa40…9e37backed Yes | 20c | 100.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.08 | 222 | 47.7%106 W · 116 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff04…d971backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 94 | 18.1%17 W · 77 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5b…5253backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 19c | 88.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.84 | 1,045 | 29.3%306 W · 739 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked No | 80c | 60$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 823 | 48.8%402 W · 421 L | +10.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b68…0e7abacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5aa…342cbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9df2…99f5backed No | 80c | 17.36$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -12%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Paraguay leading at halftime?this page
- United States leading at halftime?Yes won
- United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.