United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69afbfe96211d5899f368d996b2836e9eb720c47c4c01816052cd8d8493fdb60

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 12, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $25,942

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,355 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0346…52a5backed No	52c	4,608$2,405 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,202.69	2,407	37.7%908 W · 1,499 L	-48.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes	47c	4,540$2,151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,150.97	1,985	32.5%645 W · 1,340 L	-47.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No	64c	4,189$2,676 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,513.19	4,595	40.3%1,850 W · 2,745 L	-91.3wins	-0.02per pick	42cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd51…1041backed No	53c	3,137$1,673 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,464.18	119	63.9%76 W · 43 L	+8.8wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+13.5%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Yes	49c	2,752$1,348 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,348.32	534	48.5%259 W · 275 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Yes	48c	1,192$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.07	2,439	29%707 W · 1,732 L	-65.3wins	-0.03per pick	32cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed No	51c	1,157$593 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.06	4,457	37.2%1,657 W · 2,800 L	+31.0wins	+0.01per pick	36cpaid	-8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	47c	1,111$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527.31	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffd0…93fcbacked Yes	47c	702.81$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$327.93	112	43.8%49 W · 63 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes	48c	583.33$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	264	38.6%102 W · 162 L	-5.3wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No	51c	568.78$291 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$277.54	3,696	36.9%1,364 W · 2,332 L	-44.0wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes	47c	527.8$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.32	3,731	51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L	+55.2wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes	47c	430.54$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.26	2,805	55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L	+70.4wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+4.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd5e…9040backed Yes	48c	404$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.81	2,171	38.2%829 W · 1,342 L	-36.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7984…638abacked Yes	47c	400$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189	170	42.4%72 W · 98 L	-15.0wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes	33c	375.52$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.39	2,626	41.1%1,080 W · 1,546 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa5dd…345cbacked Yes	49c	357.14$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	157	47.1%74 W · 83 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	45cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8325…19ccbacked No	69c	346.13$239 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$107.57	668	46.7%312 W · 356 L	+45.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xe30e…4ca5backed Yes	50c	300$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.9wins	-0.11per pick	33cpaid	-59.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeea8…0412backed Yes	49c	300$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	8	62.5%5 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.11per pick	52cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d7d…10fcbacked No	60c	228.73$137 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$91.92	56	57.1%32 W · 24 L	+4.2wins	+0.07per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe619…6342backed Yes	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	479	35.1%168 W · 311 L	+4.5wins	+0.01per pick	34cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes	47c	212.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	53	24.5%13 W · 40 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed4e…580fbacked Yes	48c	208.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.4wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e9…232cbacked Yes	49c	204.08$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	54.5%12 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked No	54c	188.65$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$86.39	2,973	28%831 W · 2,142 L	-132.5wins	-0.04per pick	32cpaid	-39%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b45…362bbacked Yes	40c	151.86$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.42	981	34.8%341 W · 640 L	-7.8wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b1…d21fbacked Yes	47c	127.66$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	175	27.4%48 W · 127 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8103…4d0abacked Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	283	26.1%74 W · 209 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	24cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e13…c506backed Yes	48c	122.45$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.78	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.10per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes	47c	109.94$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.67	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xea3e…a8d3backed No	53c	109.43$58 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$51.43	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+3.2wins	+0.32per pick	48cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x30b8…9afabacked No	55c	109.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	20	70%14 W · 6 L	+5.3wins	+0.27per pick	43cpaid	+84.6%equal weight	63+0.12 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked No	69c	108.99$76 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.41	2,793	46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L	-10.3wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes	14c	108$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.02	802	25.7%206 W · 596 L	-6.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-18.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f0b…0302backed Yes	47c	106.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	25	52%13 W · 12 L	+1.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+38.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x34ea…3955backed Yes	48c	105.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	125	45.6%57 W · 68 L	-6.7wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x98d7…f41abacked Yes	47c	103.81$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.79	257	48.6%125 W · 132 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2435…753bbacked Yes	48c	103$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.44	21	47.6%10 W · 11 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb221…a639backed Yes	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	125	20%25 W · 100 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e55…e3e2backed Yes	47c	102$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	+4.5wins	+0.10per pick	36cpaid	+55.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd331…733cbacked Yes	47c	102$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	630	35.7%225 W · 405 L	-13.1wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-14.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e64…9cb7backed Yes	47c	102$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	47	36.2%17 W · 30 L	-4.5wins	-0.10per pick	46cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2614…4442backed No	54c	101$55 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.46	420	48.8%205 W · 215 L	+18.5wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8d0c…c90abacked No	53c	100.01$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.2	1,616	51.2%827 W · 789 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed No	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	243	44.4%108 W · 135 L	-4.6wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e43…2578backed Yes	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	399	56.6%226 W · 173 L	+2.5wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f33…914ebacked No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	152	40.8%62 W · 90 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	41cpaid	+16.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5605…77a9backed No	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	46cpaid	-31%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc456…8996backed No	53c	100$53 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47	34	38.2%13 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c15…9a45backed Yes	49c	82.55$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.45	363	50.1%182 W · 181 L	-7.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes	49c	77.55$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	514	29.4%151 W · 363 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	14c	75$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	2,327	18.1%422 W · 1,905 L	-363.0wins	-0.16per pick	34cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	33-0.15 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Yes	48c	74$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.52	3,992	24.9%994 W · 2,998 L	-47.0wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b32…8052backed Yes	49c	63.27$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	45	28.9%13 W · 32 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…29bfbacked Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	28	32.1%9 W · 19 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-23%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9067…3272backed Yes	49c	61.22$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	36cpaid	+91.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7a9…87e2backed No	54c	59$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27.14	413	44.1%182 W · 231 L	-16.2wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x93d8…c245backed Yes	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked No	52c	53.9$28 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.87	481	52.4%252 W · 229 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1c66…e371backed No	52c	51.31$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24.63	847	51%432 W · 415 L	+10.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a1e…5bb5backed Yes	34c	46$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	457	40.3%184 W · 273 L	-28.5wins	-0.06per pick	46cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x04a5…28d6backed Yes	47c	42.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa461…878abacked Yes	48c	41.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	272	60.3%164 W · 108 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	61cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x865f…e88ebacked No	53c	41.59$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.59	1,045	29.3%306 W · 739 L	-10.8wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ed8…3affbacked Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	50%6 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xff04…d971backed Yes	49c	40.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	94	18.1%17 W · 77 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x840c…7450backed Yes	41c	39.1$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	94	34%32 W · 62 L	-6.2wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe7ea…52d2backed No	53c	37.74$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.74	41	41.5%17 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	+7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes	41c	37$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes	36c	36.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.35	1,601	47.8%765 W · 836 L	+51.5wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked No	65c	36$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.43	2,533	46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L	+12.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb5c9…a4fcbacked No	57c	32.33$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.93	197	34.5%68 W · 129 L	-12.9wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x99f0…9495backed Yes	45c	30.9$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.91	716	38.4%275 W · 441 L	+8.7wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	+12.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363a…282fbacked Yes	49c	29.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.53	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	42cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked No	52c	24.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.99	2,231	49.2%1,098 W · 1,133 L	-21.2wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.39	199	39.7%79 W · 120 L	-7.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c3…f740backed No	80c	14.8$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.99	210	46.2%97 W · 113 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?this page
Paraguay leading at halftime?No won
United States leading at halftime?Yes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event