CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x257e54a6ce82eb856b3e0e81878e71e0ea976073dff2e008b611783c80b948be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Liquidof SemperFi Esports, Liquid
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xef26…05babacked SemperFi Esports | 21c | 6,659$1,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,426.8 | 598 | 39.6%237 W · 361 L | -15.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7ea…bbb3backed Liquid | 77c | 4,954$3,809 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.68 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c59…3887backed SemperFi Esports | 22c | 3,108$685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Liquid | 74c | 2,172$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$571.13 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18bb…e5cdbacked SemperFi Esports | 10c | 2,096$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 307 | 26.4%81 W · 226 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a12…d212backed Liquid | 70c | 1,430$1,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.7 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x084b…3de6backed Liquid | 70c | 1,400$973 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.63 | 245 | 50.2%123 W · 122 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0002…103ebacked Liquid | 72c | 1,224$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 1,155$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.25 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52ec…a6f3backed Liquid | 80c | 1,010$808 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202 | 469 | 49.7%233 W · 236 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…b805backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 1,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 219 | 47.5%104 W · 115 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Liquid | 79c | 1,000$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5d2…1b03backed SemperFi Esports | 11c | 948.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +41.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05be…2b45backed SemperFi Esports | 27c | 733.81$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 25c | 709$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.24 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…afe9backed SemperFi Esports | 14c | 638.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe167…03a1backed SemperFi Esports | 12c | 600$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 418 | 50%209 W · 209 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SemperFi Esports | 21c | 586$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.46 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf459…7a53backed SemperFi Esports | 40c | 524.7$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.85 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -6.5wins | -0.14per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe203…1b53backed Liquid | 65c | 448.08$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.88 | 353 | 44.8%158 W · 195 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed SemperFi Esports | 36c | 409.7$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.83 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x370d…a9e0backed Liquid | 74c | 400$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106 | 60 | 28.3%17 W · 43 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…46c2backed Liquid | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 398 | 51.3%204 W · 194 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked SemperFi Esports | 9c | 353.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7447…91ecbacked SemperFi Esports | 37c | 302$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3c…38d3backed SemperFi Esports | 39c | 256.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 242 | 33.9%82 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a06…cf08backed SemperFi Esports | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 66 | 51.5%34 W · 32 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93d…500cbacked SemperFi Esports | 10c | 246.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked SemperFi Esports | 5c | 218.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 3,096 | 48.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L | +135.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Liquid | 80c | 200.08$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.02 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d1…f540backed SemperFi Esports | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 178 | 49.4%88 W · 90 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4588…d206backed Liquid | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…f66ebacked Liquid | 57c | 181$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.83 | 67 | 32.8%22 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc5…ee5abacked SemperFi Esports | 21c | 177.7$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.76 | 113 | 40.7%46 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x461f…8719backed SemperFi Esports | 39c | 158.97$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274b…d408backed SemperFi Esports | 39c | 127.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3471…f17ebacked Liquid | 58c | 119.9$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.86 | 1,054 | 49%516 W · 538 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03c7…22f2backed Liquid | 62c | 114.21$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 166 | 50.6%84 W · 82 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Liquid | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 1,378 | 45.2%623 W · 755 L | +17.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Liquid | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 191 | 55.5%106 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde4b…3b7dbacked SemperFi Esports | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 318 | 52.8%168 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Liquid | 71c | 91.77$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 596 | 47.3%282 W · 314 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…a8cfbacked Liquid | 78c | 90.77$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 250 | 70.8%177 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd9…f0d5backed Liquid | 62c | 77.63$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.45 | 265 | 63%167 W · 98 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 66cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89bc…a463backed SemperFi Esports | 30c | 64.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c8…97b4backed Liquid | 78c | 63.81$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 471 | 65.2%307 W · 164 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5454…ceadbacked SemperFi Esports | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…e3ebbacked Liquid | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3726…8521backed Liquid | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 81 | 45.7%37 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked SemperFi Esports | 53c | 47.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf21d…922bbacked Liquid | 68c | 32.35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.35 | 230 | 56.1%129 W · 101 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked Liquid | 47c | 31.89$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41ec…9d9bbacked Liquid | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +112.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83d0…c927backed Liquid | 77c | 13.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.13 | 62 | 58.1%36 W · 26 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1Liquid won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid - Map 2 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)SemperFi Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.