CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaacc2eb59931d0426da59a9b9d810857dc68658662be94429121b444cbede643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- SemperFi Esportsof Liquid, SemperFi Esports
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,521
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,609
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,521 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Liquid | 69c | 9,941$6,861 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,860.7 | 233 | 55.4%129 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d0…6293backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 7,006$2,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,764.66 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fd9…3373backed SemperFi Esports | 38c | 4,000$1,520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,480 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Liquid | 69c | 2,493$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.5 | 854 | 46.4%396 W · 458 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…b4cabacked Liquid | 69c | 2,177$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f9…1513backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 1,271$407 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$863.58 | 443 | 43.3%192 W · 251 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Liquid | 69c | 1,000$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.8 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed SemperFi Esports | 31c | 990.33$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$683.49 | 670 | 41.8%280 W · 390 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae8…c2a8backed Liquid | 69c | 870$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.3 | 248 | 46.8%116 W · 132 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 857.14$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$557.14 | 557 | 38.4%214 W · 343 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports | 32c | 785.64$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.92 | 1,714 | 46.7%801 W · 913 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked SemperFi Esports | 29c | 777$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.67 | 1,144 | 49.4%565 W · 579 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7645…3117backed Liquid | 62c | 500.01$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.01 | 716 | 45.9%329 W · 387 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports | 34c | 486$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320.76 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…65ddbacked SemperFi Esports | 30c | 397$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.47 | 844 | 54.3%458 W · 386 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3763…345fbacked SemperFi Esports | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 535 | 45%241 W · 294 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Liquid | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3402…9446backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 284.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.48 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c67…e40ebacked SemperFi Esports | 35c | 259.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.43 | 196 | 42.9%84 W · 112 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31db…c25fbacked Liquid | 68c | 244.71$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.4 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e6…80d2backed SemperFi Esports | 30c | 181.88$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.32 | 156 | 42.3%66 W · 90 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked SemperFi Esports | 32c | 164.18$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.64 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 157$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.76 | 162 | 50%81 W · 81 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…8830backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.25 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x08a6…a40abacked Liquid | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc226…497dbacked Liquid | 73c | 130.63$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed SemperFi Esports | 36c | 106.7$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.44 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Liquid | 68c | 102.21$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.59 | 608 | 48%292 W · 316 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Liquid | 68c | 100$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 250 | 45.2%113 W · 137 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa76e…dcb6backed Liquid | 65c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.5 | 1,310 | 53.7%703 W · 607 L | +32.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57c9…9c9dbacked SemperFi Esports | 32c | 75.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 50cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…4f27backed SemperFi Esports | 28c | 65$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 509 | 47%239 W · 270 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x581f…9d8ebacked SemperFi Esports | 35c | 52.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.06 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed SemperFi Esports | 27c | 42.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1,146 | 43.5%499 W · 647 L | -17.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed SemperFi Esports | 35c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 527 | 55.8%294 W · 233 L | +23.0wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a01…e6fbbacked SemperFi Esports | 31c | 39.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0d4…0289backed SemperFi Esports | 32c | 34.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.38 | 175 | 46.3%81 W · 94 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa83f…b857backed Liquid | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 127 | 49.6%63 W · 64 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Liquid | 74c | 24.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.21 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf679…16acbacked SemperFi Esports | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 170 | 42.9%73 W · 97 L | -8.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee59…e42abacked Liquid | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fc2…64d1backed Liquid | 71c | 19.18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: TL (-1.5) vs SemperFi Esports (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1Liquid won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid - Map 1 WinnerLiquid won
- Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid - Map 2 WinnerSemperFi Esports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.