TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

CS2 · resolved market

Counter-Strike: SemperFi Esports vs Liquid (BO3) - ESL Pro League Stage 1

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Liquidof SemperFi Esports, Liquid
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$665,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$714,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $665,777 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 284 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in CS2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc257…358ebacked SemperFi Esports11c194,909$20,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,943.3539249%192 W · 200 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12c0…692bbacked SemperFi Esports12c27,815$3,230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,229.666048.3%29 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Liquid74c20,614$15,253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,360.8335153.8%189 W · 162 L+12.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+6.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked SemperFi Esports11c15,510$1,705 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,705.181,71446.7%801 W · 913 L+1.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Liquid78c13,686$10,714 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,971.993,09648.5%1,501 W · 1,595 L+135.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-5.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5a5…31bcbacked SemperFi Esports28c11,746$3,321 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,321.4850%0 W · 5 L-2.4wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x503a…860abacked SemperFi Esports1c11,690$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.079139.6%36 W · 55 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe3d4…2bacbacked Liquid74c11,202$8,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,912.644957.5%258 W · 191 L-19.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-5.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x31a8…3359backed SemperFi Esports0c10,962$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc0d…5d02backed SemperFi Esports0c10,190$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Liquid73c10,187$7,401 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,785.349256.5%52 W · 40 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15da…d514backed SemperFi Esports0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3402…9446backed SemperFi Esports11c8,797$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$967.6210043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fd9…3373backed SemperFi Esports23c8,598$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0006752.2%35 W · 32 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed SemperFi Esports15c7,813$1,164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,163.6246843.4%203 W · 265 L-11.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x084b…3de6backed Liquid79c5,672$4,463 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,208.2124550.2%123 W · 122 L+9.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6bd…b05abacked SemperFi Esports15c5,340$822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$822.1819834.8%69 W · 129 L-11.9wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x686f…ccb1backed SemperFi Esports15c5,132$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.786656.1%37 W · 29 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+6.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed SemperFi Esports11c5,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501,25942.5%535 W · 724 L+20.6wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Liquid75c5,000$3,759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.521,61145.4%731 W · 880 L+30.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52ec…a6f3backed Liquid72c4,567$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,277.1946949.7%233 W · 236 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked SemperFi Esports9c4,000$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.4330726.4%81 W · 226 L+8.8wins+0.03per pick24cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed SemperFi Esports27c3,860$1,057 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,057.0824846.8%116 W · 132 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-0.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed SemperFi Esports13c3,500$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.491,41133.7%475 W · 936 L+42.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e6e…be00backed SemperFi Esports11c3,087$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.1241649.8%207 W · 209 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d58…9a15backed SemperFi Esports10c3,012$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300.6114441.7%60 W · 84 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked SemperFi Esports17c2,816$491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.5461228.9%177 W · 435 L-9.2wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0785…81c3backed Liquid76c2,676$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$632.9315970.4%112 W · 47 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-0.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed SemperFi Esports19c2,655$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014532.4%47 W · 98 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed SemperFi Esports10c2,572$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.795,83037.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L+79.0wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bcd…bb7ebacked SemperFi Esports25c2,540$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$629.111520%3 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.12per pick32cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7951…bb41backed SemperFi Esports11c2,527$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.8497040.7%395 W · 575 L+12.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3a1…3529backed Liquid80c2,372$1,898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.494548.9%22 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23c8…f293backed SemperFi Esports25c2,279$573 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.682334.8%8 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick41cpaid+9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8056…b64dbacked SemperFi Esports12c2,213$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2551,62344.9%728 W · 895 L+4.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b9b…44c3backed SemperFi Esports11c2,203$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2509540%38 W · 57 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Liquid77c2,159$1,654 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.791,05449%516 W · 538 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Liquid72c2,140$1,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$597.116553.8%35 W · 30 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+14.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Liquid72c2,137$1,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$598.415444.4%24 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b5d…014bbacked SemperFi Esports1c2,128$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed SemperFi Esports16c2,098$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.2611343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe167…03a1backed SemperFi Esports20c2,043$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40041850%209 W · 209 L+9.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Liquid73c2,033$1,480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$553.264552.9%341 W · 304 L+27.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed SemperFi Esports12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24055236.2%200 W · 352 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d93…2cf1backed SemperFi Esports28c1,898$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.9111643.1%50 W · 66 L-13.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-27.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe735…c382backed SemperFi Esports7c1,883$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x891b…67b5backed SemperFi Esports3c1,834$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.144332.6%14 W · 29 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7f…70cdbacked SemperFi Esports10c1,804$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.963225%8 W · 24 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked SemperFi Esports5c1,733$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.97,92550.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L+179.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35b…60e9backed SemperFi Esports6c1,656$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.3655043.1%237 W · 313 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed SemperFi Esports9c1,638$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.1838037.4%142 W · 238 L-14.8wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed SemperFi Esports2c1,624$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34205%1 W · 19 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick12cpaid-84.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a61…588bbacked SemperFi Esports5c1,600$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.91833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed SemperFi Esports6c1,579$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.241,5009.9%148 W · 1,352 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-55.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2fe…71d6backed SemperFi Esports13c1,545$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.899048.9%44 W · 46 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cf3…eb8ebacked SemperFi Esports26c1,500$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3915234.6%18 W · 34 L+3.0wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-7.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x691a…d113backed SemperFi Esports6c1,500$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.124944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed SemperFi Esports27c1,465$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40020838%79 W · 129 L-10.4wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x65ce…b90bbacked Liquid73c1,447$1,057 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.616240.1%65 W · 97 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf988…d63bbacked Liquid71c1,420$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4535850.8%182 W · 176 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbf3…b218backed SemperFi Esports26c1,413$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$367.325048%24 W · 26 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb5a…5ce7backed SemperFi Esports10c1,408$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.052020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb00a…c58cbacked SemperFi Esports27c1,400$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.068444%37 W · 47 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed SemperFi Esports11c1,374$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.8556732.5%184 W · 383 L-30.0wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-36.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe2a5…391cbacked Liquid71c1,315$934 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.3510550.5%53 W · 52 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed SemperFi Esports11c1,314$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5639239.8%156 W · 236 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Liquid73c1,300$949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35198052.4%514 W · 466 L+26.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed SemperFi Esports26c1,278$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.3724346.9%114 W · 129 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8fc2…64d1backed SemperFi Esports16c1,266$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.8320942.1%88 W · 121 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a71…e454backed SemperFi Esports27c1,259$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34524944.6%111 W · 138 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed SemperFi Esports26c1,250$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33046345.6%211 W · 252 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Liquid74c1,220$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$319.9111048.2%53 W · 57 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfc99…ce7ebacked SemperFi Esports26c1,118$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.6318933.9%64 W · 125 L-8.6wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6fb…4d94backed SemperFi Esports26c1,112$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cc9…21adbacked SemperFi Esports11c1,100$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid-1.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb93b…4208backed SemperFi Esports5c1,058$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.924339.5%96 W · 147 L-4.7wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-11.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa390…c7d9backed SemperFi Esports14c1,034$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1406915.9%11 W · 58 L-5.0wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-18.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebff…70e5backed SemperFi Esports12c1,032$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.612,77424.5%681 W · 2,093 L-295.8wins-0.11per pick35cpaid-50.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe092…477cbacked SemperFi Esports30c1,017$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed SemperFi Esports12c1,000$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12078639.4%310 W · 476 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe137…a117backed SemperFi Esports11c1,000$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1105149%25 W · 26 L+5.3wins+0.10per pick39cpaid+36.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafa2…e45cbacked SemperFi Esports26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2604647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-11.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x75b3…be68backed SemperFi Esports25c999.98$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.99742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed SemperFi Esports11c999.97$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf630…7e65backed SemperFi Esports11c999.96$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1106046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+8.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0599…3c6abacked SemperFi Esports23c979.83$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23061754.8%338 W · 279 L-18.6wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked SemperFi Esports15c925.17$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.9920238.6%78 W · 124 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d34…3406backed SemperFi Esports11c909.09$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004259.5%25 W · 17 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2da2…8c2bbacked Liquid73c900$653 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2472669.2%18 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…f66ebacked SemperFi Esports4c894.82$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.96732.8%22 W · 45 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed SemperFi Esports20c890$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.8646344.5%206 W · 257 L-14.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-20.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dc0…699abacked SemperFi Esports8c877.69$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.721,18122.5%266 W · 915 L+3.6wins0.00per pick22cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07fe…8f90backed SemperFi Esports11c877.17$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002347.8%11 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+125.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2e1…c20abacked SemperFi Esports18c872$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.7649745.9%228 W · 269 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Liquid74c812.36$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.362166.7%14 W · 7 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x661d…4dc6backed SemperFi Esports14c805.73$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.1761837.9%234 W · 384 L-22.5wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a3c…38d3backed SemperFi Esports8c805.67$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6424233.9%82 W · 160 L0.0wins0.00per pick34cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd93d…500cbacked SemperFi Esports8c803.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.43219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-50.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f04…1d79backed SemperFi Esports13c800$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10412021.7%26 W · 94 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc192…086cbacked SemperFi Esports13c769.23$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10027530.9%85 W · 190 L-18.6wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-20.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.