Serie A · resolved market
Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2580cbc1a288cef4223665eefbcab176b70678bfaf3d394a30e3d9b2bcc06fe1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,501
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,932
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,501 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 22c | 5,000$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 189 | 23.8%45 W · 144 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 78c | 1,939$1,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.11 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 64c | 672.16$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.15 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 64c | 541.33$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.11 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 78c | 500.29$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 104 | 51%53 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 33c | 392.65$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 138 | 26.1%36 W · 102 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 39c | 247.03$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 199.53$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.06 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 26c | 183.77$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.78 | 142 | 31%44 W · 98 L | -10.3wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x415d…a37cbacked Under | 59c | 139.02$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…20bfbacked Under | 59c | 99.19$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 20c | 92.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 491 | 37.5%184 W · 307 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…f549backed Under | 74c | 68.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…d76fbacked Over | 36c | 66.78$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 78c | 54.76$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.05 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Over | 22c | 52.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 61c | 42.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 932 | 52%485 W · 447 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb4…98e9backed Over | 26c | 40.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 60c | 36.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 80c | 34.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.88 | 199 | 52.8%105 W · 94 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 404 | 47.3%191 W · 213 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f1d…7132backed Under | 77c | 19.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9744…cab4backed Under | 80c | 14.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 3.5this page
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 1.5Over won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5Under won
- Parma Calcio 1913 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Parma Calcio 1913 (-1.5)SSC Napoli won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-1.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
- Spread: SSC Napoli (-2.5)Parma Calcio 1913 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.