MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25a11d8363d8093f2b7c3e3ce67a0851af1beddaab043787b9c0924da96e0462
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,423
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 54c | 8,190$4,423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,422.6 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 46c | 7,871$3,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,249.27 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 55c | 1,924$1,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$865.86 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 45c | 1,915$862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$861.75 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 2c | 1,418$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 48c | 961.81$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.26 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a6b…1a3ebacked Over | 55c | 499.99$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.99 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 43c | 208.68$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.27 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 126.71$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.55 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 60c | 87.48$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 67c | 64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.88 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 44c | 60.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.76 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc846…c413backed Under | 34c | 52$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.32 | 539 | 50.6%273 W · 266 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 44c | 47.81$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 57c | 44.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10ac…0e0bbacked Over | 42c | 38.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.35 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Under | 61c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.92 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cf…df20backed Over | 65c | 25.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.43per pick | 63cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c5b…59b8backed Over | 64c | 24.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.25per pick | 61cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4408…0ab2backed Over | 65c | 24.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60f1…c7f6backed Over | 65c | 24.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87e5…7347backed Over | 65c | 23.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 65cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed4d…86c3backed Over | 65c | 23.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90bd…cc0abacked Over | 66c | 23.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a6…f5d9backed Over | 65c | 21.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x23e0…9778backed Over | 64c | 21.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c1…5fe3backed Over | 66c | 21.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 63cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa79c…b036backed Over | 64c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -3.3wins | -0.17per pick | 65cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x24c7…6365backed Over | 65c | 17.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ecc…15f2backed Over | 65c | 16.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 64cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.