MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d4c9f8978d2877639981044e89e928443c985d3e84b65238422e15bf6ca25fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Colorado Rockiesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,504
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,504 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 2,747$1,291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,291.09 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +14.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,832$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.15 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,144$606 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$537.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 535.81$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.72 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 508.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 430$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.1 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 423.72$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.15 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 330.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 210.62$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.83 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa69d…228ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 180$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.6 | 193 | 35.8%69 W · 124 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 101.47$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 79c | 97$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 97$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x985c…e5d2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 88.7$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 544 | 55.1%300 W · 244 L | +13.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 80.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.43 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 31c | 79.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Colorado Rockies | 66c | 77.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Colorado Rockies | 53c | 75$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 58c | 61.83$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7716…a68cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 53.19$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 880 | 53.8%473 W · 407 L | +41.0wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 28c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa2…9c82backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 44.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc70b…d2f2backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 34.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 112 | 55.4%62 W · 50 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa25a…04b7backed Colorado Rockies | 55c | 33.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 145 | 46.2%67 W · 78 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 33.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Colorado Rockies | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 28.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 50c | 23.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…d891backed Colorado Rockies | 54c | 22.04$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 16.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.34 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.