MLB · resolved market
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3bea38f7108cb3cecee425b44eacddc1a2bfd875e6c2e855e2d1e2ff5ae9a06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,833
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,384
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,833 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 1,936$1,041 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040.68 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 1c | 1,680$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 45c | 1,613$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$885.89 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 77c | 304$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.58 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 23c | 293.56$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.33 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Over | 5c | 270.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 63c | 260$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 252.29$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.11 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 35c | 207$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.55 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 50c | 201.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fd…3e24backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.05 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -8.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 66c | 133.6$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.86 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Over | 15c | 131.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.32 | 547 | 15.9%87 W · 460 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 40c | 63.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 47c | 57.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e11…d36ebacked Under | 24c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 90 | 26.7%24 W · 66 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Under | 41c | 48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | +6.9wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29d8…e1b3backed Over | 48c | 41.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 443 | 45.6%202 W · 241 L | -10.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 46c | 31.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 41c | 29.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa05a…4635backed Over | 58c | 27.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 830 | 53%440 W · 390 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 47c | 26.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Under | 43c | 25.09$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.35 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09a6…252abacked Over | 75c | 25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 93 | 59.1%55 W · 38 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 63c | 18.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0fce…63d5backed Over | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 273 | 45.4%124 W · 149 L | -13.7wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…10d9backed Over | 73c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 445 | 53.5%238 W · 207 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 8.5this page
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado RockiesColorado Rockies won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Under won
- Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5)Colorado Rockies won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-3.5)Colorado Rockies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.