Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x25abae3d7d0e359f7c7c8cf9d796314b7c3ba2bb542a4ce1836b999c533ae60f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,246
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,487
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,246 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 37c | 562.44$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.59 | 95 | 18.9%18 W · 77 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 69c | 498.4$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 29c | 293.01$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.17 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 30c | 286$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 57c | 278.97$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.82 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes | 40c | 247.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.22 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 43c | 219.93$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.55 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 46c | 189.55$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.12 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 70c | 189.49$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.23 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed Yes | 29c | 150.34$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.34 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c1…1bb0backed No | 32c | 140.71$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 72 | 58.3%42 W · 30 L | +10.6wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 79c | 126.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.6 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes | 34c | 124.71$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.31 | 283 | 24.7%70 W · 213 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca1…fc25backed Yes | 46c | 123.21$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.15 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 117$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.05 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 22c | 108$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 53c | 99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 97.73$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xa5cf…39d5backed Yes | 36c | 90.25$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.76 | 231 | 29.4%68 W · 163 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 87.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 87.34$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 24c | 83.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.04 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed Yes | 19c | 77.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 77.45$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 36c | 73.36$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.75 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked Yes | 74c | 67.24$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.24 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes | 51c | 64.3$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.47 | 207 | 39.1%81 W · 126 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 39c | 61.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 26c | 61$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.39 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718c…11e0backed Yes | 72c | 60.92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 51 | 64.7%33 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 70cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa05f…0003backed No | 26c | 60.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.63 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc31f…f04abacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 62 | 79%49 W · 13 L | +9.6wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 50c | 59.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 59.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 62c | 58.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ab…c8dfbacked Yes | 47c | 57.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.47 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +5.3wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x550e…94dbbacked Yes | 39c | 56.95$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | +3.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 51c | 55.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.51 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 36c | 53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0f…085cbacked Yes | 50c | 52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 616 | 76.3%470 W · 146 L | +92.4wins | +0.15per pick | 61cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 35c | 51.43$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.43 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 64c | 48.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.22 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 74c | 46.34$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.25 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 53c | 45$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 48c | 43.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…34e7backed No | 74c | 43$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 51c | 42.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.88 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 56c | 37.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 41c | 36.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.62 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 59c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 64c | 34.31$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 65c | 33$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 67c | 32.31$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 65c | 30.95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3ca…d665backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.66 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.98$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 77c | 25.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dcc…e9d1backed Yes | 47c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +111.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 48c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked No | 49c | 24.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xac64…866ebacked No | 48c | 21.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 710 | 57.9%411 W · 299 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…56babacked Yes | 59c | 21.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed Yes | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 61c | 19.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 60c | 17.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 63c | 16.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.