Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7c08419f1bf8b936968b37edaf482d6993d9e20dcf2928e91a7fd362d7f5352
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked No | 41c | 1,197$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.71 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 56c | 899.94$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.68 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 487.4$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.39 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 56c | 475.56$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.52 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 62c | 271$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.02 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 46c | 229.63$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.36 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 56c | 214.29$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2165…f598backed Yes | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 141 | 13.5%19 W · 122 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed No | 63c | 164.83$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.5 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 46c | 162.9$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.93 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 45c | 161.18$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.12 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 44c | 155.88$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.06 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 57c | 151.85$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.26 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 52c | 137.04$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 45c | 130.98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.83 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 47c | 128.48$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.13 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 56c | 125$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 50c | 116.39$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 47c | 104.17$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60a7…eb53backed No | 44c | 88$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 43c | 87.26$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.95 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 48c | 85.05$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfb…decbbacked Yes | 49c | 81.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 137 | 46%63 W · 74 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 32c | 79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 46c | 78$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.93 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 54c | 75$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 51c | 67.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.85 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 63.72$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.28 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9d1…73edbacked Yes | 56c | 61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.16 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 44c | 51.13$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 49c | 50.16$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…6ed2backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 43c | 48.74$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 56c | 48.53$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.49 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb884…19c1backed Yes | 51c | 48.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 39c | 47.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.61 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 48c | 47.16$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 51c | 45.15$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x756d…4b84backed No | 56c | 42.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb87f…f7d4backed Yes | 51c | 42.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.77 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 42c | 42.53$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.54 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaba7…8ff1backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 195 | 41.5%81 W · 114 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32fb…fae7backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 45c | 39.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.99 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e4b…48bdbacked Yes | 32c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 49c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 48c | 34.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked No | 63c | 34$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 42c | 33.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 32.96$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 54c | 32.74$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 48c | 30.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x15ad…d17abacked No | 44c | 30.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.1 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -39%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 49c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc52…795bbacked Yes | 42c | 27.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…e12fbacked No | 45c | 27.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 132 | 54.5%72 W · 60 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 56c | 26.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b22…6f69backed No | 79c | 26.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 54c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 52c | 24.53$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 56c | 24.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7244…2aafbacked Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x955c…a075backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 72c | 16.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 20°C on August 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.