TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,991

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,432 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee61…debfbacked Baltimore Orioles39c2,294$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,404.031,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8cb3…8ed1backed Chicago White Sox62c2,007$1,244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,244.077048.6%34 W · 36 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Baltimore Orioles42c1,339$558 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.599,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Chicago White Sox57c1,107$633 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$632.51,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e2…8a9bbacked Chicago White Sox56c1,036$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.3114156%79 W · 62 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles44c682.46$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.032,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles41c440.43$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.0412,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles43c431.66$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.056,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Baltimore Orioles21c414.91$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$328.211,04150.1%522 W · 519 L+17.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b10…acabbacked Baltimore Orioles20c380.68$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.458446.4%39 W · 45 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Chicago White Sox60c350.51$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.7810,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90c5…534cbacked Baltimore Orioles36c192.32$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.0834145.2%154 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70fc…ab12backed Chicago White Sox67c188.05$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.921,36754.3%742 W · 625 L+16.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Chicago White Sox55c171.4$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.2732348.9%158 W · 165 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox63c153.72$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.846,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc5db…b42dbacked Chicago White Sox77c141.24$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.482955.2%16 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.13per pick68cpaid-19.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Chicago White Sox56c139.09$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.8966551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago White Sox54c138.93$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.025,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf21…2ed8backed Baltimore Orioles46c138.83$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.977153.5%38 W · 33 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Chicago White Sox57c122.94$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.2816351.5%84 W · 79 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Chicago White Sox58c121.85$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.671,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Baltimore Orioles52c115.3$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.993,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Baltimore Orioles25c106.68$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.0984122.7%191 W · 650 L-81.4wins-0.10per pick32cpaid-29.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8943…6c65backed Baltimore Orioles46c105.17$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.795844.8%26 W · 32 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Chicago White Sox43c97.21$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.644,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Baltimore Orioles44c88.54$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.271,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdcc0…6872backed Baltimore Orioles35c70$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.514549%71 W · 74 L-0.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Baltimore Orioles79c62$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.0278146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Chicago White Sox55c61.92$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0646659.7%278 W · 188 L+1.9wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Chicago White Sox79c55.7$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.735,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chicago White Sox56c52.16$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2156946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3129…22edbacked Baltimore Orioles37c52.01$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.7712746.5%59 W · 68 L-7.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Chicago White Sox42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2147743%205 W · 272 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked Chicago White Sox71c45.47$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.2825452%132 W · 122 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Baltimore Orioles40c45.31$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.181,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb155…9111backed Chicago White Sox59c43.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.472759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+18.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xbeb7…ca4abacked Baltimore Orioles43c37.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.3413256.1%74 W · 58 L+8.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Chicago White Sox55c35.38$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4633051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68cc…e8c8backed Chicago White Sox56c34.77$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4732647.9%156 W · 170 L-8.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Baltimore Orioles41c34.53$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.371,05750.2%531 W · 526 L+23.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe722…57c5backed Chicago White Sox56c34.15$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1394549%463 W · 482 L-38.2wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3f98…ec35backed Baltimore Orioles46c31.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0413144.3%58 W · 73 L-5.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x792a…7364backed Baltimore Orioles46c31.55$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.0410542.9%45 W · 60 L-7.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Baltimore Orioles44c30.5$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.082,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Baltimore Orioles36c30.49$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.6448339.8%192 W · 291 L+2.2wins0.00per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Chicago White Sox80c29.64$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.714,03557.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L+72.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84cc…3132backed Chicago White Sox56c26.89$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.0611753%62 W · 55 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Chicago White Sox59c26.59$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5866749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5dda…1768backed Baltimore Orioles41c25.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.151100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+143.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Chicago White Sox55c24.77$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6231650.6%160 W · 156 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Chicago White Sox56c24.34$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.6389950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Baltimore Orioles52c22.25$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6888053.8%473 W · 407 L+41.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x75ac…be97backed Chicago White Sox56c21.56$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.073145.2%14 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.09per pick54cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf2b2…2e80backed Chicago White Sox62c18.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.519151.6%47 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.