Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26013c5da659012ea893b9e3324011d59986ed3d5eb2b4a06f28fc833d520685
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,294
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 7,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 6c | 1,438$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,348.08 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 7c | 1,047$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.93 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7384…1ebdbacked No | 5c | 1,004$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.76 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 15cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 8c | 840.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 15c | 662.11$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$563.65 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cc0…1912backed Yes | 7c | 634.51$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.07 | 161 | 16.1%26 W · 135 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 51c | 591.75$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.04 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked Yes | 6c | 451.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$424.82 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9471…eb8abacked Yes | 6c | 366.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$342.9 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 14c | 341.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c68…7936backed Yes | 45c | 336.29$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.15 | 107 | 84.1%90 W · 17 L | +30.1wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +66%equal weight | 75+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 14c | 331.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.48 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 304.54$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$286.17 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…7465backed Yes | 26c | 267.85$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.22 | 352 | 33%116 W · 236 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes | 6c | 221.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.12 | 70 | 8.6%6 W · 64 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94da…25b5backed Yes | 6c | 177.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.78 | 370 | 7.8%29 W · 341 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d3…ce62backed Yes | 7c | 156.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.52 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 15c | 144.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.68 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31dc…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 143.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 104 | 27.9%29 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xacb6…337fbacked Yes | 14c | 137.95$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.04 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1f…493cbacked No | 80c | 126.69$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.26 | 38 | 76.3%29 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 21c | 124.3$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.96 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5485…0864backed No | 30c | 120.09$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -2.6wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb80…d0e3backed Yes | 11c | 119.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.85 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 74c | 113.17$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.47 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed Yes | 29c | 97.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.22 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d02…704cbacked Yes | 24c | 86.16$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.24 | 321 | 32.7%105 W · 216 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 82.32$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.54 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 73c | 68.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 16c | 67.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.89 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 23c | 55.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.7 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 22c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 38c | 43.82$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed No | 76c | 38.48$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.28 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xba0a…8ea3backed Yes | 70c | 27.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.44 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +4.2wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 59c | 22.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 15.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 34°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C or higher on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.