MLB · resolved market
Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26122fec1c60fdaaac231b892c25c0b155c5cf6bdf76421f0327e013db027c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $193,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $193,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 97,957$47,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49,985.94 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 51c | 90,000$45,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45,900 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x986b…12e9backed Over | 51c | 67,598$34,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34,475.15 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba38…e406backed Under | 49c | 50,000$24,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25,500 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Under | 49c | 14,004$6,862 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,141.95 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Over | 51c | 4,444$2,266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,266.44 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac7…78ebbacked Over | 53c | 3,667$1,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,943.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 50c | 2,910$1,455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 52c | 2,447$1,282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 47c | 2,222$1,044 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,177.66 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 48c | 2,106$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,096.2 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4658…4131backed Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 491 | 58.9%289 W · 202 L | +30.8wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 47c | 1,612$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.59 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 52c | 1,546$804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$804.15 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 49c | 1,322$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$641.61 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 50c | 1,129$564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.38 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ecf…af11backed Over | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09af…9728backed Over | 53c | 916.79$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.9 | 891 | 53.5%477 W · 414 L | +24.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 22c | 814.09$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…40febacked Over | 50c | 646.17$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.09 | 215 | 50.2%108 W · 107 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 46c | 642.07$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.15 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…2748backed Under | 57c | 584.5$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.68 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 46c | 433.22$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.78 | 143 | 28.7%41 W · 102 L | -11.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 44c | 279.59$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.02 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 67c | 226.32$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.74 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Over | 46c | 211.85$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 51c | 199.7$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.47 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8ac…b73dbacked Under | 50c | 194.21$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.11 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Over | 50c | 182.5$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.25 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 50c | 167.24$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd8…eecabacked Under | 50c | 166.4$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.98 | 222 | 48.6%108 W · 114 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3b…5fa5backed Under | 53c | 153.3$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.66 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 14c | 133.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over | 42c | 107.85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 780 | 52.2%407 W · 373 L | +22.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Over | 39c | 106.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 44c | 103.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 63c | 93.21$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 91.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5760…40aabacked Under | 50c | 82.9$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.45 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -7.1wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3464…8112backed Over | 52c | 74.54$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.76 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -4.1wins | -0.22per pick | 48cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 26c | 70.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 1,927 | 17.2%331 W · 1,596 L | -320.3wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 61c | 68.57$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 62c | 63.05$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.89 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a2…6fc8backed Over | 52c | 62.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67d3…96cbbacked Over | 52c | 62.27$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2798…a9c7backed Under | 48c | 60.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.37 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 49c | 60.1$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…32f2backed Under | 47c | 59.84$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.72 | 163 | 47.9%78 W · 85 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…3965backed Over | 51c | 58.79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 63c | 58.68$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.21 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…271bbacked Under | 50c | 58.45$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.23 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e4…4a19backed Under | 69c | 55.41$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 66 | 84.8%56 W · 10 L | +15.1wins | +0.23per pick | 62cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 68+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 56c | 55.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 57c | 51.94$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a0c…48fdbacked Under | 50c | 49.24$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00e…73fabacked Over | 51c | 48.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 165 | 53.3%88 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 35c | 48.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.63 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 51c | 47.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 30c | 45.35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ad…5097backed Over | 36c | 39.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 64c | 39.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…9400backed Under | 49c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.13 | 252 | 49.6%125 W · 127 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 60c | 37.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Under | 50c | 29.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.87 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 51c | 29.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 61c | 28.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 50c | 26.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d19…a694backed Over | 43c | 26.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 107 | 35.5%38 W · 69 L | -7.8wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Under | 57c | 23.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 44c | 23.2$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 49c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…3107backed Under | 68c | 21.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 125 | 72%90 W · 35 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 52c | 19.72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 61c | 18.36$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.