NFL · resolved market
Spread: Lions (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261964a348bcfa2095dde4d127a478bd609a27d89c277015bb806adac921ccaa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lionsof Lions, Commanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,384
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,384 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Lions | 68c | 5,933$4,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,898.66 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Commanders | 32c | 5,553$1,777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,777.06 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Commanders | 32c | 2,273$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.86 | 244 | 56.6%138 W · 106 L | +17.3wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Lions | 68c | 1,200$816 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Commanders | 32c | 1,040$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334.13 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Lions | 70c | 525$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 229 | 50.2%115 W · 114 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…edf8backed Lions | 67c | 149.25$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.25 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x089d…c7c9backed Lions | 68c | 147.06$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.06 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…48f3backed Commanders | 20c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Commanders | 33c | 72.45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.91 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions | 67c | 55.19$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fc7…b89bbacked Lions | 68c | 32.06$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6212…4eb3backed Lions | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f24…46cebacked Lions | 67c | 25.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.3 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x44e6…9d9ebacked Lions | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6b…d720backed Lions | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 92 | 51.1%47 W · 45 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Lions | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x262a…fcedbacked Lions | 68c | 19.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2953…2ed5backed Lions | 67c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.95 | 70 | 61.4%43 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lions (-3.5)this page
- Lions vs. CommandersLions won
- Lions vs. Commanders: O/U 49.5Over won
- Lions vs. Commanders: O/U 50.5Over won
- Lions vs. Commanders: O/U 51.5Over won
- Spread: Lions (-7.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-8.5)Lions won
- Spread: Lions (-9.5)Lions won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.