TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Lions vs. Commanders

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,224,531
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,260,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,224,531 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 447 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d3b…c46bbacked Commanders22c1,795,154$403,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$403,004.3811145.9%51 W · 60 L-0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed88…f3c4backed Commanders23c457,124$103,218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103,218.248344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Lions77c439,400$338,338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,06210061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Lions78c300,923$233,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67,402.9617454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Lions78c210,526$164,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,286.144652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lions79c181,658$143,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,553.2933553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Lions77c175,000$134,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,2505550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Lions78c155,197$120,302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,895.424957%142 W · 107 L+12.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6211…b89ebacked Commanders23c130,227$29,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,952.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c67…377ebacked Lions78c96,000$74,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,1202100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+50.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31c5…ede4backed Commanders20c92,427$18,910 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,909.6416545.5%75 W · 90 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+12.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Lions77c89,119$68,871 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,247.6324456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Lions77c80,000$61,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,4009944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Commanders20c75,210$15,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,388.067035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions77c60,983$47,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,828.621,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Lions78c50,000$39,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,00011168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0xa117…a311backed Lions78c47,000$36,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,3401861.1%11 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Lions77c40,000$30,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,20020755.1%114 W · 93 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lions78c38,426$29,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,509.2641248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Lions78c33,179$25,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,299.3610462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lions79c32,233$25,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,787.2547738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Lions77c30,000$23,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x132a…abe8backed Commanders12c27,530$3,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,349.71526.7%4 W · 11 L0.0wins0.00per pick27cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cb2…14d6backed Lions79c25,316$20,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,316.461926.3%5 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid+0.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Lions79c24,000$18,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,0401968.4%13 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+4.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x23e5…d41fbacked Commanders5c22,000$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.99825%2 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+77.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Lions80c21,510$17,177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,332.2912744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions78c21,052$16,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,641.31,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Lions77c20,500$15,785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,714.9983147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Lions77c20,353$15,751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,601.3522950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e1…5ad0backed Lions78c20,000$15,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,50024056.7%136 W · 104 L+19.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Lions80c18,921$15,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,823.0161148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85d9…717bbacked Lions77c16,000$12,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6801154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Lions78c16,000$12,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6003056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Lions79c15,000$11,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1503464.7%22 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b4f…37b8backed Lions79c14,464$11,427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,037.462937.9%11 W · 18 L-8.4wins-0.29per pick67cpaid-49.1%equal weight33-0.16 edge/pick
0x1569…4e0cbacked Lions80c14,275$11,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,866.051464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick62cpaid-3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3eac…4c8cbacked Commanders21c13,743$2,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8862133.3%7 W · 14 L-2.6wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-33.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Lions78c13,409$10,459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,949.9786547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea3e…b956backed Lions78c12,510$9,707 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,803.124351.4%125 W · 118 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Commanders3c12,372$342 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.465457.4%31 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+20.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x209e…8bb4backed Lions78c11,690$9,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.86453.1%34 W · 30 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Commanders1c11,613$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.061969.2%18 W · 178 L-4.5wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-67.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd46e…904abacked Commanders1c11,579$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7440%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Lions77c11,110$8,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,555.310442.3%44 W · 60 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-17.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Lions78c11,050$8,620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,43023447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf166…b79abacked Lions78c10,876$8,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,392.76977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick73cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x00d6…aa44backed Commanders19c10,206$1,939 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,939.123423.5%8 W · 26 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd76e…225bbacked Commanders22c10,000$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,200742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+47.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfadc…472ebacked Lions78c9,500$7,410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0901457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Commanders2c9,294$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.3219235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Commanders1c8,803$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.641486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Commanders21c8,600$1,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.8353348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Commanders7c8,207$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542.320026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Commanders21c8,146$1,701 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.6614951%76 W · 73 L+4.0wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb7…05f6backed Lions78c8,000$6,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.9510144.6%45 W · 56 L+4.5wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Lions79c7,776$6,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,639.0731854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9621…0a73backed Lions79c7,766$6,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,630.864040%16 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Lions78c7,500$5,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,65014450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd614…1fa3backed Commanders19c7,373$1,401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,400.844422.7%10 W · 34 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-31.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Commanders0c7,004$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.86980%0 W · 98 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76a1…5084backed Commanders0c6,920$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.711040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-44.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Commanders7c6,454$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.7530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x48be…73a8backed Lions79c6,329$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,329.115650%28 W · 28 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x864a…7cacbacked Lions79c6,013$4,739 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,274.9312850%64 W · 64 L-7.0wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lions78c5,515$4,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,206.9531350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3af4…ed6bbacked Lions80c5,338$4,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.5650%3 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-23.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Lions77c5,186$4,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,183.6227348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2092…b6d8backed Lions78c5,128$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,128.212100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Commanders4c5,053$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.561361.5%8 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.26per pick36cpaid+64.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Lions79c5,000$3,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0503961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Lions77c5,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,15010434.6%36 W · 68 L-8.6wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-27.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x20da…e704backed Commanders14c4,803$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$657.722821.4%6 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Lions78c4,739$3,711 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.8932050.9%163 W · 157 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5cf…8cc5backed Commanders6c4,500$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2553154.8%17 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.14per pick40cpaid+48.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Lions78c4,487$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987.1822349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x919a…bc17backed Commanders1c4,016$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.071770.6%12 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf3ae…7b92backed Commanders21c4,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8404330.2%13 W · 30 L-4.3wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5821…92ccbacked Commanders21c3,670$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.74341.9%18 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Lions78c3,523$2,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$775.0821254.2%115 W · 97 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa727…8289backed Lions79c3,383$2,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$723.322965.5%19 W · 10 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick57cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Commanders4c3,316$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.9764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Lions79c3,164$2,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.8354451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Commanders2c3,129$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.065679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Lions80c3,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60030446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Lions77c2,874$2,213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$661.0831848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Commanders7c2,825$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.1650242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ce…35f0backed Lions78c2,821$2,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.673652.8%19 W · 17 L-4.2wins-0.12per pick65cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5b3…0476backed Lions80c2,761$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.415855.2%32 W · 26 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xcea6…67adbacked Lions78c2,564$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$564.16549.2%32 W · 33 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c1c…a0a4backed Commanders20c2,320$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$475.552540%10 W · 15 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Commanders22c2,273$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500.0614035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Lions78c2,025$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.512944.2%57 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Commanders9c2,024$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17314215.5%22 W · 120 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+14.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Commanders15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016344.8%73 W · 90 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9005…d988backed Commanders18c2,000$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x81e4…6f22backed Commanders20c2,000$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4002744.4%12 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Lions77c2,000$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f26…be98backed Lions78c1,858$1,449 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.751764.7%11 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76fc…e0bdbacked Lions78c1,800$1,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3965050%25 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+22.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.