TailMyPicks
Market

NFL · resolved market

Spread: Lions (-7.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Lionsof Lions, Commanders
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$176,441
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$194,693

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,441 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1496…a429backed Commanders50c94,624$47,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47,092.5827454.7%150 W · 124 L+13.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4d45…9054backed Lions50c20,728$10,365 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,362.831350.2%157 W · 156 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3333…ed90backed Lions50c19,900$9,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9503737.8%14 W · 23 L-3.8wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Lions51c18,194$9,364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,829.1347738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Lions80c15,000$12,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00060049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Lions50c14,850$7,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,354.631,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Commanders49c13,428$6,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,579.5886547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Lions50c10,846$5,437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,409.8433553.4%179 W · 156 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Commanders48c9,634$4,625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,625.1912744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x59f4…c1f1backed Lions52c9,596$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,606.144546.7%21 W · 24 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Lions51c8,000$4,080 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,9204134.1%14 W · 27 L-5.1wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-35.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Lions51c6,567$3,352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,214.8364747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Lions50c5,162$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,584.2641248.5%200 W · 212 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Commanders50c4,800$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,40024053.8%129 W · 111 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Commanders50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Commanders48c3,413$1,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,638.1937350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0af5…2470backed Lions51c3,000$1,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,470944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Commanders49c2,869$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.339855.1%54 W · 44 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Lions50c2,111$1,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,044.911,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Lions50c2,087$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,043.522450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x357b…0b65backed Lions50c2,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0007661.8%47 W · 29 L+5.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+9.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4bb2…a656backed Commanders50c2,000$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00014035%49 W · 91 L-12.0wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xce99…637ebacked Lions51c1,529$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$749.414351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa815…a3c3backed Lions51c1,500$765 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7353464.7%22 W · 12 L0.0wins0.00per pick65cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Commanders49c1,317$646 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$645.5465048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a33…2534backed Lions50c1,200$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6007436.5%27 W · 47 L-7.8wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-25.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8351…9bebbacked Lions50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50016346%75 W · 88 L-0.7wins0.00per pick46cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b3c…ffc7backed Lions51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.3911142.3%47 W · 64 L-0.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+9.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8cb6…9aabbacked Lions51c980.39$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.391250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-12.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7fa…44e5backed Lions50c800$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4003056.7%17 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+16.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4673…d99bbacked Lions50c713.15$357 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356.5828556.5%161 W · 124 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e46…7ae5backed Lions50c701.32$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.661553.3%8 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Lions51c654$331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.5622950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfc1…818dbacked Lions51c631.41$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$309.3920238.6%78 W · 124 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-20.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Commanders49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29423647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x10ba…b202backed Commanders50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf373…dc57backed Lions50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9844…5e6cbacked Commanders50c600$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3004546.7%21 W · 24 L-3.4wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-18.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe832…7abbbacked Lions50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3004257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5384…9d80backed Lions50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3003046.7%14 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Commanders2c504$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.085679.9%56 W · 511 L-1.3wins0.00per pick10cpaid-39.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc4d…f0b8backed Lions51c500.16$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.0813448.5%65 W · 69 L-9.4wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-12.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb72b…f4e0backed Lions52c500$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24016737.7%63 W · 104 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf936…f310backed Lions51c500$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2456755.2%37 W · 30 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x161c…3b03backed Lions50c449.94$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.975756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x75a0…be02backed Lions51c439.8$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.53464.7%22 W · 12 L+4.0wins+0.12per pick53cpaid+23.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa177…6e84backed Lions50c400$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$200666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+21.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Commanders45c320.77$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.3561148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Lions50c300$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15030743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Lions55c272.82$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.829536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed Lions49c250$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.520650.5%104 W · 102 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Lions50c250$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1257526.7%20 W · 55 L-12.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0xc597…4ee7backed Lions80c230.54$184 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.111136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8214…ef72backed Lions54c218$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.238350.6%42 W · 41 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Commanders47c214.36$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.6241450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0298…93c4backed Commanders49c205.8$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10028337.8%107 W · 176 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-10.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Commanders50c204.94$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.9455345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Lions51c200$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$987745.5%35 W · 42 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Lions50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1004652.2%24 W · 22 L+2.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5cfd…ca1bbacked Lions50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005149%25 W · 26 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x89c6…73d8backed Lions50c198$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6941…efd5backed Lions51c197.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.4813253%70 W · 62 L-0.5wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d15…6914backed Lions50c149.22$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.229054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf38…a59bbacked Commanders45c100$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4524456.6%138 W · 106 L+17.3wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+17%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5cfe…ed69backed Commanders50c100$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5024243.4%105 W · 137 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e0b…cd84backed Commanders49c100$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$498047.5%38 W · 42 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0fbf…06d4backed Lions51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43ed…c97fbacked Lions51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.041040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-6.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x02f7…b17abacked Lions52c75$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3611855.9%66 W · 52 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e4c…0314backed Lions51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.023946.2%18 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.14per pick60cpaid-21.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf9b6…1bbdbacked Lions51c49.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.021250%6 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+36.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2059…5203backed Lions51c40$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.611646.6%54 W · 62 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0b4…9dc2backed Lions51c39.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.222642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+25.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaef8…c6b7backed Lions80c32$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c09…a69fbacked Commanders50c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+32.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Lions50c26.32$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1636341.9%152 W · 211 L-13.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xff7f…75a1backed Lions51c21.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.57966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Commanders50c20.47$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2416551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x973a…70e6backed Lions51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.87262.5%45 W · 27 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9b…bc4abacked Lions50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102835.7%10 W · 18 L-4.3wins-0.16per pick51cpaid-32.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x57eb…3a67backed Lions50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101040%4 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd58b…48e8backed Lions50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103540%14 W · 21 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-25%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x04ee…be10backed Lions51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81957.9%11 W · 8 L+3.1wins+0.16per pick42cpaid+250.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8e7a…0f0ebacked Lions51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.812050.8%61 W · 59 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa198…acc5backed Lions50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.