Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261a62b6c73c032b97c1fbada32393042d15694ee17946ab45ca0c5df9847162
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56fd…d60dbacked Yes | 37c | 733.4$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 66c | 624.77$412 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.42 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d78…e5c9backed Yes | 31c | 385.33$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 105 | 24.8%26 W · 79 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 311.73$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed Yes | 34c | 216.17$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.55 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.37 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 32c | 199.8$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.38 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 63c | 142.59$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.35 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ce…ddadbacked Yes | 31c | 129.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 129 | 39.5%51 W · 78 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 67c | 92.31$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 62c | 82.58$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.71 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x548c…34a7backed Yes | 35c | 79.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 61cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 76c | 78.76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.63 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 50c | 77.75$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 31c | 71.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.96 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x95d5…0560backed Yes | 45c | 70$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 38c | 68.46$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.47 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 46c | 65$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…651cbacked Yes | 20c | 64.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6851…ec54backed No | 79c | 62.47$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 44 | 54.5%24 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 58.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 50c | 58.08$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 67c | 55.25$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.07 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 23c | 48.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd2…8eaabacked Yes | 27c | 47.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 122 | 24.6%30 W · 92 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…dadbbacked No | 46c | 43.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 157 | 49%77 W · 80 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf03b…34fdbacked No | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 34c | 38.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2091…9cd9backed Yes | 60c | 36.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 65c | 36.06$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.63 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 32c | 35.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 79c | 34.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.19 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa397…7817backed Yes | 46c | 32.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 140 | 53.6%75 W · 65 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c72…825ebacked No | 77c | 32.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 55c | 31.04$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.97 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc1…647abacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.92 | 560 | 48%269 W · 291 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 79c | 29.83$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f52…895cbacked No | 75c | 27.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.82 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 51c | 25.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 48c | 22.93$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11ea…1676backed No | 66c | 22.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…1731backed No | 67c | 18.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked No | 59c | 16.89$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.89 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 72c | 16.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 24°C on August 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 22°C on August 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on August 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on August 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.