Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x261f59b5bc51fcc65c7f7c628ae5a9f0da05cdbab63151fd795d2971e35f870f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Collignonof Tsitsipas, Collignon
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,562
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Collignon | 67c | 5,915$3,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,953.21 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f9…a28cbacked Tsitsipas | 34c | 4,025$1,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,350 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Tsitsipas | 32c | 1,848$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600.33 | 2,174 | 36.9%802 W · 1,372 L | +39.5wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Collignon | 67c | 1,060$710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.9 | 437 | 43.7%191 W · 246 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Tsitsipas | 32c | 1,025$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.03 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Collignon | 68c | 1,000$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tsitsipas | 33c | 600$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Collignon | 65c | 531.26$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.94 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x374e…87c9backed Tsitsipas | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Collignon | 79c | 476.38$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.74 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Collignon | 67c | 411.78$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.89 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Collignon | 66c | 322.05$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.5 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Tsitsipas | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,247 | 42.7%960 W · 1,287 L | +33.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf148…0b4fbacked Collignon | 66c | 282.77$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.14 | 365 | 45.2%165 W · 200 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Tsitsipas | 45c | 275.62$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.82 | 2,761 | 53.9%1,487 W · 1,274 L | +73.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa84d…bebdbacked Tsitsipas | 35c | 224.83$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 347 | 48.1%167 W · 180 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Collignon | 57c | 217.49$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.41 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Tsitsipas | 33c | 153$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.49 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Collignon | 52c | 147.17$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.32 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Tsitsipas | 34c | 140.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Tsitsipas | 34c | 140.02$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Tsitsipas | 34c | 102.26$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.77 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Tsitsipas | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 1,250 | 44.7%559 W · 691 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c2e…b55cbacked Collignon | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | +9.8wins | +0.11per pick | 35cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…c1f1backed Collignon | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +3.5wins | +0.31per pick | 50cpaid | +59.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Collignon | 68c | 91.85$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.39 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x253f…4253backed Collignon | 68c | 88.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1e…f992backed Tsitsipas | 39c | 84.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 654 | 34.9%228 W · 426 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Tsitsipas | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Tsitsipas | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 410 | 45.1%185 W · 225 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Tsitsipas | 46c | 31.78$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.62 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Collignon | 67c | 22.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c4…fce5backed Collignon | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 814 | 57%464 W · 350 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Collignon | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Collignon | 79c | 19.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x449f…2d2ebacked Collignon | 79c | 18.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)this page
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs CollignonTsitsipas won
- Set 2 Winner: Tsitsipas vs CollignonCollignon won
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Swiss Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Raphael CollignonStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.