Tennis · resolved market
Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x754d278bc8386e364f8449e9a10031be428ddcab3bf74eff3361b1ce306bb68e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Over 2.5of Over 2.5, Under 2.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $36,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,870
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf8ab…13a1backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 8,500$4,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,462.96 | 272 | 52.9%144 W · 128 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 5,223$2,925 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,924.75 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Under 2.5 | 58c | 3,400$1,981 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,981.19 | 231 | 52.4%121 W · 110 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4411…985ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 3,322$1,461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,860.61 | 2,145 | 54.2%1,162 W · 983 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 2,475$1,312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,311.75 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…ffe8backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 2,312$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.8 | 117 | 54.7%64 W · 53 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 2,206$1,147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,147.27 | 1,148 | 53%608 W · 540 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf95e…53ffbacked Under 2.5 | 51c | 2,021$1,021 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020.82 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 1,500$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3308…f04bbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 1,096$487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.43 | 631 | 44.1%278 W · 353 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Over 2.5 | 42c | 1,058$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$613.66 | 384 | 46.4%178 W · 206 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.67 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over 2.5 | 41c | 897.78$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.69 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 828.33$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.73 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 760.98$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.78 | 559 | 41.3%231 W · 328 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over 2.5 | 49c | 653.66$318 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.73 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Over 2.5 | 41c | 600$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Under 2.5 | 54c | 499.21$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269 | 142 | 25.4%36 W · 106 L | -10.2wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over 2.5 | 51c | 421.62$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.65 | 2,417 | 50.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L | +78.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 2.5 | 55c | 408.89$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 267.84$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.99 | 205 | 42.4%87 W · 118 L | -12.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9644…d03bbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 259.98$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.51 | 370 | 47%174 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6705…8184backed Over 2.5 | 43c | 232.56$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.56 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…e5b2backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 401 | 44.4%178 W · 223 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Under 2.5 | 26c | 211.83$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.12 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e50…dd7dbacked Over 2.5 | 64c | 207.59$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.59 | 79 | 63.3%50 W · 29 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Under 2.5 | 5c | 205.22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | -3.2wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Over 2.5 | 46c | 202$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.08 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over 2.5 | 25c | 200$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 55%169 W · 138 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f55…2181backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 173.36$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.08 | 128 | 39.8%51 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8499…950dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 159.09$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.09 | 130 | 43.1%56 W · 74 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe1…5b09backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 155.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.81 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbffa…f32ebacked Under 2.5 | 64c | 155.28$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd123…d341backed Over 2.5 | 37c | 154$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.02 | 248 | 41.5%103 W · 145 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over 2.5 | 56c | 149.72$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.01 | 318 | 42.5%135 W · 183 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Under 2.5 | 56c | 140$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.4 | 678 | 48.4%328 W · 350 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 132.55$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.2 | 2,601 | 46.5%1,209 W · 1,392 L | +18.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f5…f087backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 177 | 57.6%102 W · 75 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Over 2.5 | 42c | 99.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 93$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.36 | 319 | 48.9%156 W · 163 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…3c88backed Over 2.5 | 47c | 80.85$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.85 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 69.08$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 2,375 | 51.1%1,213 W · 1,162 L | +8.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf595…fd9ebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Under 2.5 | 53c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36cf…d3aebacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 449 | 46.1%207 W · 242 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…b5a8backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 45.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd852…6fe9backed Over 2.5 | 48c | 45.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.43 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9abb…3f96backed Over 2.5 | 45c | 44.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.89 | 278 | 71.6%199 W · 79 L | +12.5wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 41.87$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Under 2.5 | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 449 | 52.8%237 W · 212 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafae…ca54backed Under 2.5 | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…444abacked Under 2.5 | 52c | 37.03$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -26%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Over 2.5 | 50c | 33.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 551 | 49.7%274 W · 277 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3639…9014backed Over 2.5 | 44c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64ec…931dbacked Over 2.5 | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 433 | 36.7%159 W · 274 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…f258backed Under 2.5 | 56c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 190 | 64.7%123 W · 67 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Over 2.5 | 49c | 23.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 1,776 | 48.6%863 W · 913 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Under 2.5 | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb6…2ea0backed Over 2.5 | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47c9…2038backed Over 2.5 | 61c | 16.75$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 441 | 38.8%171 W · 270 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Raphael Collignon: Total Sets O/U 2.5this page
- Set 1 Winner: Tsitsipas vs CollignonTsitsipas won
- Set 2 Winner: Tsitsipas vs CollignonCollignon won
- Set Handicap: Tsitsipas (-1.5) vs Collignon (+1.5)Collignon won
- Swiss Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Raphael CollignonStefanos Tsitsipas won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Match O/U 23.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Over won
- Tsitsipas vs. Collignon: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.