Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26282c33eb55b469009f07a890049750f035190281de354fa1b9a0e34c98c6e5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,666
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $46,989
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,666 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeda7…3ca8backed Yes | 0c | 18,002$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f2…7c8cbacked Yes | 0c | 14,348$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 34c | 264.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.47 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 35c | 260.93$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.38 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 11c | 213.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.42 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 26c | 206.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 60c | 194.48$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 18c | 176.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 63c | 172.72$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.7 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 8c | 162$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 11c | 158.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 44c | 154.9$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.98 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda18…4282backed Yes | 46c | 150.26$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.53 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 15c | 110.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 43c | 100.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 37c | 98.35$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.34 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 19c | 94.71$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.33 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 87.14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d6…e027backed Yes | 18c | 80.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 80 | 42.5%34 W · 46 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c3…ed3ebacked Yes | 20c | 56.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef5…0366backed Yes | 36c | 53.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 44c | 45.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 35c | 37.55$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 47c | 30.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Yes | 53c | 29.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 51c | 29.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b2…21f4backed Yes | 51c | 26.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 297 | 70.4%209 W · 88 L | +15.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb1c4…293dbacked Yes | 50c | 26.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 39 | 71.8%28 W · 11 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce9a…8ea6backed Yes | 48c | 25.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 188 | 78.2%147 W · 41 L | +19.4wins | +0.10per pick | 68cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdc…57b3backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 77.1%81 W · 24 L | +11.1wins | +0.11per pick | 67cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb822…1422backed No | 65c | 24.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.51 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 73c | 24.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 64c | 23.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc2…621ebacked No | 58c | 23.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 55c | 23.37$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…1075backed No | 79c | 23.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe747…a984backed No | 56c | 21.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.74 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec0c…8589backed No | 72c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.73 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 76c | 14.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 79c | 13.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.81 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.