TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$19,678
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$23,853

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,678 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x044f…d1f1backed No13c1,001$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.478,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes73c997.39$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$267.595232.7%17 W · 35 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No17c576.94$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.337,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes42c413.73$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.611,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes30c358.54$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.7217,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd80a…c714backed Yes32c252.55$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.81,97718.8%371 W · 1,606 L+8.0wins0.00per pick18cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked No23c249.68$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.1260121%126 W · 475 L-25.4wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e9c…f159backed No59c222.59$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.332871.4%20 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick70cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes56c208.99$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.846,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e6e…cfe9backed Yes60c202.53$121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.063638.9%14 W · 22 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-35.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8444…1cf9backed No43c200$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8528737.6%108 W · 179 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-15.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e2b…3d17backed Yes67c195.86$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.468762.1%54 W · 33 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick59cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b87…9414backed No30c162.98$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.732,00138.4%768 W · 1,233 L+1.7wins0.00per pick38cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No18c152.41$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.124,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No14c138$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.891,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c130$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.912,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No23c113.66$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.372,11936.1%764 W · 1,355 L-12.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-26.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d6…8f66backed No46c111.91$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.4818052.8%95 W · 85 L+9.7wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x85c0…e01dbacked No19c104.28$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.481,03224.3%251 W · 781 L+40.9wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes64c104.17$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.641,84037%681 W · 1,159 L-8.2wins0.00per pick37cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes70c103.79$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.141,06147.9%508 W · 553 L+32.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd36…a832backed Yes37c103.16$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.0665043.4%282 W · 368 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec0c…8589backed Yes32c101$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.6810346.6%48 W · 55 L+0.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7150…bb18backed No40c100$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed No41c99.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419919.2%19 W · 80 L+5.5wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+84.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes54c99.99$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461,32232.2%426 W · 896 L-43.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-14.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0b77…dfdbbacked No24c99.27$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.192740.7%11 W · 16 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes70c99.1$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.854143.1%233 W · 308 L+9.7wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+42.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8110…c1babacked No68c97.78$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.498250%41 W · 41 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-15.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes59c95.86$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.661,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xae8f…c820backed Yes26c95.43$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.5263538.1%242 W · 393 L+6.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed Yes21c86.52$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.4731341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes51c84.47$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3932444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6730…9634backed No62c79.69$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.081154.5%6 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.16per pick70cpaid-29%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xae68…064abacked No69c79.25$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.372,55563.8%1,631 W · 924 L+38.4wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a1…20f9backed No39c76.23$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.8934057.1%194 W · 146 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed No46c75.29$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.51,06153.2%564 W · 497 L+33.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01a6…59b0backed No70c70.97$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.431,67961.7%1,036 W · 643 L+6.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff18…da47backed Yes35c63.42$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.5326434.1%90 W · 174 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No33c62.03$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x14ea…998bbacked No22c58.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7115937.7%60 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes35c55.3$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.8639535.4%140 W · 255 L+7.2wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa6c…dd94backed Yes40c53.58$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.15450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36f1…847fbacked No67c52.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.085139.2%20 W · 31 L-5.9wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-27.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1600…9236backed Yes31c51.75$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.6535432.5%115 W · 239 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c50.85$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.727,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No42c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211,99152.3%1,042 W · 949 L-76.1wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed Yes31c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.51,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe752…2200backed Yes56c47.79$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.121,20425.3%305 W · 899 L+18.2wins+0.02per pick24cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes32c45$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.4559125.9%153 W · 438 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-1.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes76c44.18$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7324066.3%159 W · 81 L+13.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+6.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes34c43.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.833,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59fe…14fdbacked No27c39.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9457232.9%188 W · 384 L-104.6wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-45.9%equal weight31-0.18 edge/pick
0x866d…f673backed Yes80c37.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.489054.4%49 W · 41 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4811…be32backed Yes62c36.89$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.131154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes80c36.65$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.3310562.9%66 W · 39 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…15eabacked No45c34.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7514135.5%50 W · 91 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x27fb…3f5ebacked No45c33.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.9920942.1%88 W · 121 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f5e…5cdbbacked No45c32.98$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.760%0 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe4d0…b168backed No59c32.66$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.1711249.1%55 W · 57 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4add…6fe5backed No45c31.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.921,45236.8%534 W · 918 L+12.3wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d91…f3f3backed Yes80c30$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63366.7%22 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4204…4637backed Yes54c29.36$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.5742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-26.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5530…8ca0backed Yes67c29.02$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.527969.6%55 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ccc…2d87backed Yes69c28.09$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.711384.6%11 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick68cpaid+26.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b9a…1fefbacked Yes56c27.49$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.12366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+75.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes42c25.85$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.111956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x95b2…49aabacked Yes73c25.5$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.774146.3%19 W · 22 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2cf…464bbacked No65c24.89$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.21,11563.4%707 W · 408 L+29.7wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d14…ee01backed Yes73c22.39$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.984037.5%15 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-28%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4add…fb04backed Yes59c21.62$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8611844.9%53 W · 65 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fbc…186dbacked No73c20.84$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.213540%14 W · 21 L-6.3wins-0.18per pick58cpaid-40.8%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x52a8…83f2backed Yes76c20.04$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.731656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No66c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.218549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf899…0759backed Yes61c19.59$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.5826738.6%103 W · 164 L0.0wins0.00per pick39cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea21…f753backed Yes76c19.52$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.6723668.2%161 W · 75 L+18.8wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ccd…383bbacked Yes67c19.34$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.4320866.8%139 W · 69 L+8.9wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes57c19.14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2332044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3506…ad95backed No67c18.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.584355.8%24 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb822…1422backed No67c17.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.762969%20 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick65cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No69c17.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.941,69960.6%1,029 W · 670 L-24.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0dc2…621ebacked No66c16.03$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.582462.5%15 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa98a…a5a8backed No69c14.87$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.212,01567.7%1,365 W · 650 L+1.8wins0.00per pick68cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.