Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4ee626d70a754791a3fccc9cce69d3b47ffda67897d072cdf9614b4f6f24606a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,462
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x628b…b84fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,375$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 15c | 878.32$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.47 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5546…c8cebacked Yes | 2c | 585.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 98 | 19.4%19 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…d384backed Yes | 5c | 284.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 148 | 6.8%10 W · 138 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 7c | 277.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 10c | 274.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 17c | 250.68$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 31c | 231.82$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.89 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 20c | 207.82$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 17c | 199.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 10c | 190.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 167.96$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed Yes | 20c | 153.51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.82 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…7926backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 423 | 15.4%65 W · 358 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 29c | 147.24$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.99 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 17c | 146.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 17c | 128.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f8…87bdbacked Yes | 18c | 116.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 22c | 94.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.86 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c0…e01dbacked Yes | 11c | 91.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,032 | 24.3%251 W · 781 L | +40.9wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 26c | 90$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked No | 59c | 86.41$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.6 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 38c | 86.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a92…35bcbacked Yes | 24c | 83.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.27 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x052e…ade1backed Yes | 28c | 77.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 283 | 29.3%83 W · 200 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 75c | 64.39$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 33c | 63.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 24c | 59.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.34 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 67c | 57.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 56.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 19c | 54.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 21c | 52.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 37c | 46.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd802…d766backed No | 66c | 43.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 306 | 64.1%196 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3543…c63fbacked Yes | 35c | 42.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 66c | 39.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff18…da47backed Yes | 32c | 38.16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 264 | 34.1%90 W · 174 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc17e…906abacked Yes | 46c | 37.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 540 | 43.9%237 W · 303 L | +11.2wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6382…acbdbacked No | 79c | 35.11$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked No | 55c | 28.65$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 65c | 26.06$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 163 | 66.3%108 W · 55 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 68c | 19.36$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 18.34$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 73c | 14.32$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 10°C on April 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 11°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 8°C or below on April 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 9°C on April 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.