Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26379399346483782a2ee362401d4b7230bab179c406332bbbe7689fa768f7d0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,274
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,470
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,274 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 3c | 1,114$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 766.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.73 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 10c | 721.36$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 7c | 388.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.31 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 5c | 364.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 8c | 342.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 14c | 330.05$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.05 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 8c | 312.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 13c | 305.89$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.35 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 6c | 292.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.35 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…8c4dbacked Yes | 9c | 283.57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.52 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 12c | 233.28$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.13 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 18c | 233.22$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 228.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5aad…dc28backed Yes | 13c | 223.49$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.33 | 676 | 33.7%228 W · 448 L | +33.8wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 18c | 218.05$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe581…276fbacked Yes | 11c | 184.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 176.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.48 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 16c | 145.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.03 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 8c | 141.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 7c | 137.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 133.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 16c | 93.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 13c | 89.56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 14c | 77.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 80c | 50.45$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 80c | 26.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 78c | 20.5$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.41 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.