Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc228d161c334ca6b055de2f875b1534981e5d54f551371397f6fcde3a629f556
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 65c | 975.53$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.73 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54a0…4134backed Yes | 30c | 658.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$458.58 | 148 | 23%34 W · 114 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 40c | 546.8$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked Yes | 34c | 532.64$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.24 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 30c | 502.47$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.45 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed Yes | 35c | 498.58$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.99 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 41c | 460.02$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.85 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 61c | 407.83$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.6 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 42c | 379.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.52 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 57c | 365.09$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.84 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 356.31$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.02 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 343.7$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 33c | 332.52$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.89 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…8f75backed No | 71c | 299.99$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 50c | 277.65$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa83c…a8f4backed Yes | 40c | 251.24$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.24 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed No | 5c | 249.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 239.13$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.63 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed No | 75c | 225.26$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 13c | 219.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 6c | 217.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed Yes | 29c | 203.37$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.39 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 36c | 198.27$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.49 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 74c | 184.1$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.87 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 27c | 156.82$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.04 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 29c | 149.98$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.74 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 136.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.4 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf576…a786backed No | 77c | 130.35$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 376 | 69.4%261 W · 115 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 75c | 128.45$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 128$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 121.77$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.54 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 21c | 121.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 43c | 120.73$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed Yes | 29c | 117.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.54 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 116.56$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.1 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 12c | 112.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 71c | 110.33$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.97 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 110.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.42 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 51c | 104.59$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.38 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x16c9…17afbacked Yes | 30c | 104.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.64 | 150 | 44.7%67 W · 83 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bce…24cdbacked No | 63c | 101.99$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.73 | 109 | 66.1%72 W · 37 L | +7.5wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.5 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 36c | 98.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.54 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 47c | 96.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.73 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 95.32$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.56 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 72c | 94.77$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 66c | 90$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…6a89backed No | 70c | 84.97$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.41 | 384 | 54.9%211 W · 173 L | +26.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…1006backed Yes | 32c | 80.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.19 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 79.25$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.25 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 28c | 78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.94 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb76…de58backed Yes | 39c | 77.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.15 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 25c | 77.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.17 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed Yes | 39c | 76.44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.21per pick | 33cpaid | +60.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x91c0…d4dabacked No | 65c | 75.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.63 | 53 | 81.1%43 W · 10 L | +8.5wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 62c | 75.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.58 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.75 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 30c | 73.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.34 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 73$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.22 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 71.96$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.96 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 69c | 71.25$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.24 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 68.65$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 67c | 64.09$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.99 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 29c | 64.03$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 41c | 63.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 65c | 63$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 30c | 62.34$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.61 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 60.05$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.68 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 78c | 60$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 34c | 59.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6871…7cb8backed Yes | 64c | 57.75$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 79 | 53.2%42 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 25c | 55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 19c | 54.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bf6…2529backed Yes | 24c | 54.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 238 | 45.8%109 W · 129 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 74c | 53.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 43c | 52.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.66 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…abbabacked Yes | 47c | 51.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.75 | 113 | 31.9%36 W · 77 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 69c | 51.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 26c | 51.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 69c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 25c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed No | 65c | 49.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed No | 57c | 49.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 49.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.43 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed Yes | 41c | 48.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 68c | 47.39$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.25 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 40c | 47.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 41c | 46.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 47c | 46$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.38 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 44.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x644c…9b6abacked No | 68c | 44.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +2.8wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 39c | 43.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.95 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 66c | 43.78$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57fe…94f9backed Yes | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.