Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69c5c1792db61731b0149fada70b97a339ddf4aeb55a2277106495c1e649a8f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,238
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,238 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 51c | 836.97$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.49 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…f982backed No | 57c | 607.05$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.03 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 60c | 493.14$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 42c | 489.75$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.13 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x668b…8900backed Yes | 66c | 451.73$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8be7…8f75backed No | 54c | 349.96$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.32 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 63cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 46c | 343.7$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.72 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 8c | 337.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 312.49$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 52c | 299.5$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.89 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 51c | 250.85$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.56 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 218.14$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 8c | 211.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 45c | 202.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.96 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 30c | 201.27$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97c3…d8f0backed Yes | 34c | 199.24$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.06 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 53c | 177.46$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 41c | 170.94$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.29 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 8c | 166$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36b6…0400backed Yes | 45c | 155.83$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 62c | 149.98$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.06 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 62c | 144.73$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.76 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3df3…c0d0backed Yes | 62c | 140.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.53 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 51c | 137.65$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 52c | 127.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a4a4backed Yes | 19c | 126.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 192 | 17.2%33 W · 159 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 54c | 122.55$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.18 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 56c | 120.73$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.71 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 45c | 119.35$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 53c | 109.65$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 50c | 109.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.17 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 21c | 106.96$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 45c | 105$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.78 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 24c | 103.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a9…75ddbacked No | 48c | 103.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 241 | 41.9%101 W · 140 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 46c | 101.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x952d…ee48backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3999…664bbacked Yes | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 46c | 96.31$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 41c | 96.02$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.48 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 91$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.86 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea7…7450backed No | 58c | 89.1$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 417 | 60.4%252 W · 165 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 38c | 86.1$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 53c | 81.5$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.38 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 48c | 81.19$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.25 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa08a…63ffbacked Yes | 62c | 79.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.59 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 36c | 78.87$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.61 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11fc…8262backed Yes | 64c | 78.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 379 | 42.2%160 W · 219 L | -14.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 78c | 77.6$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 59c | 77.19$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x342c…de11backed Yes | 27c | 76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 172 | 41.9%72 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71d9…19f8backed Yes | 58c | 76$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.84 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 55c | 70.09$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 37c | 70$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d9…ee63backed Yes | 49c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0de9…3d1fbacked Yes | 51c | 68.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 160 | 36.3%58 W · 102 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…e9ccbacked No | 77c | 66.28$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.23 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 69cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 46c | 65.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 50c | 63.28$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…33b5backed Yes | 64c | 62.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 62 | 69.4%43 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 60.96$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x188a…9fafbacked No | 46c | 60.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 196 | 62.2%122 W · 74 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…3b5dbacked Yes | 38c | 60.02$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 137 | 38.7%53 W · 84 L | +13.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 26c | 60.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.54 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 61c | 57.36$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.99 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 44c | 55.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef6…1174backed No | 46c | 54$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -70.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 65c | 53.57$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 39c | 50.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 43c | 50.04$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…6732backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 57c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf993…ad52backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…31e3backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 21c | 49.34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 61c | 49.05$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked No | 50c | 48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41f6…828ebacked No | 48c | 47.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 451 | 30.8%139 W · 312 L | +33.3wins | +0.07per pick | 23cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes | 33c | 45.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 274 | 21.9%60 W · 214 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 54c | 44.85$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 28c | 44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5c…2ee3backed Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43bc…fcdfbacked Yes | 58c | 43.37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 49c | 42.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 35c | 42.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c70…edf3backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 54c | 39.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 64c | 39.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 59c | 38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 73c | 37.8$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 50c | 37.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 11?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.