Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x264075623e1aba78c324552c318d1472f5de6f2395fe31fc20eabe58fe6fd639
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,284
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,284 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 44c | 1,135$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.32 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 665.25$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 56c | 459.31$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.75 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe826…adb7backed Yes | 40c | 455.75$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.6 | 120 | 32.5%39 W · 81 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 300$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 43c | 282.51$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.13 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6546…04e1backed Yes | 42c | 234.46$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.5 | 371 | 44.2%164 W · 207 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 34c | 217.53$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.54 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x476e…00a9backed Yes | 40c | 171.6$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 93 | 45.2%42 W · 51 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 36c | 137$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3e…814abacked Yes | 17c | 133.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | +8.9wins | +0.14per pick | 37cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed No | 56c | 133$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.52 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16d…6ca6backed Yes | 39c | 126$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.14 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed No | 59c | 122.55$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 88 | 48.9%43 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc89f…14a9backed Yes | 46c | 118.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.37 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 39c | 108$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 57c | 107.58$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb54e…b2a7backed Yes | 45c | 102.72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.21 | 135 | 53.3%72 W · 63 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4079…7126backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 140 | 54.3%76 W · 64 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 90.7$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.78 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 85$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a1b…6e41backed Yes | 38c | 78.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 143 | 34.3%49 W · 94 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 58c | 77.59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.59 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 56c | 74$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b98…8595backed Yes | 21c | 68.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.65 | 299 | 13%39 W · 260 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 58c | 65.65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 31c | 56.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked Yes | 46c | 54.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 44c | 53.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 41c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 56c | 52.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed Yes | 38c | 52.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb699…4e20backed Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 213 | 52.1%111 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 44c | 47.57$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 26c | 47.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 64c | 44.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 31c | 43.65$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x36f7…4a5abacked Yes | 43c | 39.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked Yes | 36c | 39.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 44c | 38.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…d211backed Yes | 33c | 34.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 68c | 33.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.76 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 58c | 32.84$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 30.99$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.79 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 61c | 28.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 56c | 26.39$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 180 | 43.3%78 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1f…eb96backed No | 66c | 25.32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 231 | 46.3%107 W · 124 L | -8.6wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed Yes | 46c | 24.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 43c | 24.35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 50c | 24.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 45c | 22.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 69c | 20.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 56c | 19.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 14°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 15°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 17°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 19°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 20°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.