Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26408098edf0d7fb33194a76c051d3ecb461125582899c7e40f9e92c39e9fa29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,015
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,271
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,015 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 18c | 546.28$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed No | 16c | 453.5$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 58c | 344.8$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.82 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5e…4033backed No | 46c | 314.07$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.84 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 38c | 289.54$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.03 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 11c | 268.45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 48c | 264.68$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.8 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 30c | 249.61$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 52c | 234.89$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 47c | 219.38$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.16 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 15c | 195.43$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ae4…bd41backed No | 11c | 195.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.47 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 48c | 186.85$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 64c | 178.45$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.08 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 53c | 138.71$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.23 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7309…95bdbacked No | 18c | 134.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.44 | 111 | 24.3%27 W · 84 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 48c | 116.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.4 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 28c | 114.97$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 53c | 110.28$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 53c | 109.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.26 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 15c | 104.65$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 60c | 101.64$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x113b…3048backed No | 40c | 97.37$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 39 | 56.4%22 W · 17 L | -2.2wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed No | 48c | 97.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 13c | 96.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f4…5944backed No | 11c | 91.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 30c | 87.16$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7969…9fecbacked Yes | 35c | 85.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71cf…52d1backed Yes | 77c | 84.72$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.49 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f93…480bbacked No | 33c | 76.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.84 | 60 | 40%24 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d9…f0b0backed Yes | 55c | 72.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 286 | 48.3%138 W · 148 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 18c | 71.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 53c | 70$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 62c | 69.8$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e37…5396backed Yes | 70c | 69.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 78c | 67.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.14 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd731…4199backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 92 | 73.9%68 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 42c | 59.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c8…b8c0backed Yes | 56c | 58.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.78 | 328 | 30.5%100 W · 228 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked Yes | 44c | 53.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda7b…3c9fbacked Yes | 54c | 51.76$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.81 | 125 | 67.2%84 W · 41 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked Yes | 54c | 50.54$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.02 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0b3…13e5backed Yes | 71c | 49.43$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.34 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed Yes | 63c | 45.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056b…e7a4backed Yes | 75c | 45.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 30 | 20%6 W · 24 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked Yes | 68c | 42.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 55c | 42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…51f6backed Yes | 43c | 40.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.26 | 30 | 23.3%7 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5e…aa95backed No | 43c | 40.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4a3…de03backed Yes | 72c | 40.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…350bbacked Yes | 48c | 39.56$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Yes | 76c | 38.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.04 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 77c | 38.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 55c | 38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.01 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…9144backed Yes | 76c | 37.88$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.09 | 97 | 41.2%40 W · 57 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 40c | 37.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed Yes | 54c | 36.24$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.65 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…ae21backed Yes | 52c | 35.76$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.17 | 353 | 62.9%222 W · 131 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b3e…b127backed Yes | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed Yes | 56c | 34.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfabc…7178backed Yes | 60c | 33.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 74cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 38c | 32.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6b5…4768backed Yes | 50c | 32.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 75c | 31.21$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fa6…3f0ebacked Yes | 53c | 30.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.71 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 62c | 30.59$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 76c | 30.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3ee…31aebacked Yes | 77c | 30.54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 36c | 30.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked Yes | 62c | 27.93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe78f…7548backed Yes | 79c | 27.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 43c | 27.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.54 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked Yes | 56c | 25.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…705dbacked Yes | 54c | 25.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00b3…f08ebacked No | 56c | 25.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86da…1cf6backed Yes | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 153 | 45.8%70 W · 83 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 79c | 24.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed Yes | 58c | 24.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.36 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 62c | 24.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.08 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 50c | 22.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.49 | 146 | 32.9%48 W · 98 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 75c | 22.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2097…8063backed Yes | 70c | 20.65$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.28 | 96 | 68.8%66 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed Yes | 62c | 18.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.08 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 75c | 17.82$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc52a…e37abacked Yes | 62c | 16.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 76c | 16.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750a…608cbacked Yes | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C or below on April 10?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on April 10?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on April 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.