Tennis · resolved market
Casper Ruud vs. Hamad Medjedovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x267fe4c697f5edb6e82a48b7daf3be3cde2da23ea18dbd0e9592141a254a2e75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Under 3.5of Over 3.5, Under 3.5
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,926
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd09…7f92backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 2,000$1,246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,246 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 1,048$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$660 | 3,871 | 35%1,353 W · 2,518 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 755.25$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.7 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b90…5fb9backed Over 3.5 | 60c | 609.05$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.43 | 90 | 47.8%43 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc00…79f8backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 600$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 410 | 60.5%248 W · 162 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 499.99$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 461$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.82 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under 3.5 | 37c | 406.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.21 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54d1…13f4backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 372$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.92 | 737 | 48%354 W · 383 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…b8dbbacked Under 3.5 | 39c | 266.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.79 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa877…2e20backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 250$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 810 | 47.9%388 W · 422 L | +30.1wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…408dbacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 232.26$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3088…2391backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 214$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.54 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2c4…a40abacked Over 3.5 | 61c | 164.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50ca…bfddbacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 603 | 42%253 W · 350 L | +11.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 141.45$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.01 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c32…7156backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 113$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 812 | 55.3%449 W · 363 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2546…5155backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 110$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.1 | 122 | 50.8%62 W · 60 L | -8.8wins | -0.07per pick | 58cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d38…6f08backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 112 | 53.6%60 W · 52 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 337 | 47.2%159 W · 178 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…f8ddbacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b8…780ebacked Over 3.5 | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8372…01e6backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 80$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 65cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 444 | 42.3%188 W · 256 L | +14.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa538…1ee9backed Over 3.5 | 62c | 54.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -4.5wins | -0.28per pick | 66cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53fc…d6fabacked Under 3.5 | 38c | 51$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.62 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…3813backed Under 3.5 | 39c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 1,168 | 49.1%573 W · 595 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…4003backed Under 3.5 | 38c | 48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 921 | 38.4%354 W · 567 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…f3e2backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 47.62$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Under 3.5 | 40c | 46.67$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 209 | 42.6%89 W · 120 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe0…8e55backed Over 3.5 | 61c | 30.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d1…cac5backed Over 3.5 | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 116 | 53.4%62 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Casper Ruud vs. Hamad Medjedovic: Total Sets O/U 3.5this page
- Roland Garros ATP: Casper Ruud vs Hamad MedjedovicCasper Ruud won
- Ruud vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 36.5Under won
- Ruud vs. Medjedovic: Match O/U 38.5Under won
- Set 1 Winner: Ruud vs MedjedovicRuud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-1.5) vs Medjedovic (+1.5)Ruud won
- Set Handicap: Ruud (-2.5) vs Medjedovic (+2.5)Ruud won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.