CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs ex-RUSTEC - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26943e378d99246fa3f1c332c31e8a5997c66d8c82a50540423458deb8533460
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- ex-RUSTECof Butterfly, ex-RUSTEC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,500
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,500 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed44…4f76backed Butterfly | 56c | 1,677$942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$941.86 | 522 | 42.5%222 W · 300 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked ex-RUSTEC | 36c | 969.07$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.82 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked ex-RUSTEC | 33c | 680.65$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.47 | 634 | 57.1%362 W · 272 L | +40.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb361…7348backed Butterfly | 64c | 647.7$412 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.74 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Butterfly | 59c | 620.59$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$365.99 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24cc…0927backed Butterfly | 66c | 452.79$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 136 | 53.7%73 W · 63 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed ex-RUSTEC | 49c | 284.93$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.36 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked ex-RUSTEC | 38c | 279.03$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.01 | 1,890 | 41.9%791 W · 1,099 L | -71.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Butterfly | 34c | 211.94$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.67 | 3,544 | 29.3%1,037 W · 2,507 L | -289.1wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…6be5backed ex-RUSTEC | 43c | 208.08$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.08 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd30b…2acdbacked ex-RUSTEC | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.87 | 52 | 63.5%33 W · 19 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa369…3ad6backed ex-RUSTEC | 27c | 175.39$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.08 | 331 | 46.5%154 W · 177 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b00…c13cbacked ex-RUSTEC | 41c | 160.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.29 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…94b4backed Butterfly | 22c | 154.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 503 | 41.6%209 W · 294 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Butterfly | 62c | 121.49$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.77 | 4,754 | 43.6%2,071 W · 2,683 L | -85.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54ac…47e6backed ex-RUSTEC | 45c | 103.59$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.11 | 681 | 72.2%492 W · 189 L | +120.9wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x401d…23c6backed Butterfly | 28c | 100.8$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked ex-RUSTEC | 37c | 89.81$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.95 | 2,195 | 43.1%946 W · 1,249 L | -68.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Butterfly | 42c | 85.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.41 | 3,267 | 45.5%1,485 W · 1,782 L | -85.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa955…7487backed ex-RUSTEC | 32c | 84.68$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.26per pick | 28cpaid | +70.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab3…3044backed ex-RUSTEC | 39c | 76$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.29 | 1,121 | 42.5%476 W · 645 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed Butterfly | 48c | 62.57$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 702 | 42.2%296 W · 406 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5785…e5cbbacked ex-RUSTEC | 40c | 53.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.28 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8616…3bb0backed Butterfly | 64c | 53.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.02 | 560 | 49.8%279 W · 281 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Butterfly | 46c | 53$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed ex-RUSTEC | 37c | 45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.35 | 224 | 50.9%114 W · 110 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed ex-RUSTEC | 41c | 44.7$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.19 | 780 | 43.7%341 W · 439 L | -21.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed ex-RUSTEC | 28c | 43.55$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.23 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Butterfly | 63c | 43.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 5,341 | 31.3%1,674 W · 3,667 L | -390.7wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked ex-RUSTEC | 53c | 43$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 2,143 | 47.3%1,013 W · 1,130 L | -61.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…1044backed ex-RUSTEC | 47c | 40.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf4…0e3dbacked ex-RUSTEC | 44c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -2.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf76…ffeabacked Butterfly | 47c | 34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 230 | 37.8%87 W · 143 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked ex-RUSTEC | 60c | 29.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.01 | 7,990 | 50.4%4,029 W · 3,961 L | +180.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…819abacked Butterfly | 67c | 27.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 120 | 51.7%62 W · 58 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Butterfly | 52c | 25.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 166 | 41%68 W · 98 L | -8.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb985…cf92backed Butterfly | 69c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.25 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs ex-RUSTEC - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs ex-RUSTEC (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series PlayoffsButterfly won
- Counter-Strike: Butterfly vs ex-RUSTEC - Map 1 WinnerButterfly won
- Map Handicap: BTF (-1.5) vs ex-RUSTEC (+1.5)ex-RUSTEC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.