Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26a9b7784a0f689100e237b227a0dbd4b1ab302cda46a9c8f7618a651e23bc08
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,976
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 53c | 467.55$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.52 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…a836backed No | 7c | 202.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 46c | 151$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.37 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 48c | 124$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked No | 48c | 105.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 41c | 100.53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.19 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…5577backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 250 | 38%95 W · 155 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x818b…1646backed Yes | 55c | 99.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0de…3b38backed No | 75c | 90.66$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 124 | 73.4%91 W · 33 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 54c | 88.12$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 48c | 59.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 51c | 58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d39…099abacked No | 54c | 55.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9da…f9debacked Yes | 60c | 53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 59 | 93.2%55 W · 4 L | +21.7wins | +0.37per pick | 56cpaid | +80.4%equal weight | 79+0.26 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…f1f5backed Yes | 44c | 51.73$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.79 | 244 | 34.4%84 W · 160 L | +10.0wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 55c | 50.13$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.43 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 54c | 48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 44c | 47.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 46c | 42.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 47c | 42.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 42c | 41$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x31de…03ffbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 49 | 91.8%45 W · 4 L | +18.2wins | +0.37per pick | 55cpaid | +80.1%equal weight | 77+0.25 edge/pick |
| 0x2a31…f2f0backed No | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 76 | 60.5%46 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 41c | 39.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 40c | 39.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4a…a5a5backed Yes | 60c | 39.22$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 35 | 94.3%33 W · 2 L | +13.8wins | +0.40per pick | 55cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 76+0.23 edge/pick |
| 0x896c…804bbacked Yes | 52c | 38.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 38c | 38.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 55c | 35.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x458e…8034backed Yes | 57c | 35.07$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 32.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 31.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 49c | 31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.07 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 70c | 28.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 39c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 48c | 22.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…b25bbacked Yes | 50c | 22.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.16 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -35%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb0f…b951backed Yes | 53c | 21.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 49 | 83.7%41 W · 8 L | +13.2wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd7e1…8652backed No | 60c | 20.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5219…7f31backed No | 52c | 20.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 353 | 44.5%157 W · 196 L | -18.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ed…4da6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fc…eec9backed Yes | 63c | 18.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 60c | 17.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 61c | 16.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bfc…8d4fbacked No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 95 | 73.7%70 W · 25 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 9?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 9?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 9?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.