Earnings · resolved market
Will Hasbro (HAS) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26c0dbef4fec7aa73032355a33133ee97a1a4c3cc3fed61acffe51d9e15de1ad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,558
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,558 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1bf4…c68cbacked No | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,175.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb62…727dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b92…42e6backed Yes | 76c | 2,302$1,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$554.13 | 122 | 64.8%79 W · 43 L | +15.2wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc79…1c2abacked No | 28c | 804$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfceb…37dabacked No | 20c | 600$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 72c | 541.81$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 263 | 34.6%91 W · 172 L | -14.2wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f5…be7bbacked Yes | 64c | 426.63$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.59 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9758…caafbacked No | 28c | 360.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f19…3aedbacked No | 34c | 355.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked No | 19c | 355$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.95 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 63c | 333.96$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.57 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…c98abacked No | 29c | 300.9$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.78 | 117 | 23.1%27 W · 90 L | -18.3wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 27c | 299.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e4…5557backed Yes | 78c | 256.81$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0433…8b4fbacked No | 32c | 238.68$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -30%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed No | 22c | 238.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.27 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 19c | 206.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…f4a0backed No | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc97b…7f7fbacked Yes | 76c | 198.2$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.2 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf41d…8fe1backed No | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 115.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 290 | 24.1%70 W · 220 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 21c | 103.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 218 | 20.2%44 W · 174 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…dd34backed Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 155 | 64.5%100 W · 55 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bab…4f17backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.78 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ac…2d85backed No | 28c | 80$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 64c | 63.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 110 | 32.7%36 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 463 | 14.3%66 W · 397 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 761 | 37.6%286 W · 475 L | +35.5wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8081…95cabacked No | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 23cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 30c | 39.02$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.53 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cbf…2bdebacked Yes | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x182d…a303backed Yes | 80c | 15.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.07 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +59.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58a3…3490backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23f5…2991backed Yes | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.