TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 15-22?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$37,242
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,977

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,242 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xba2f…d04bbacked Yes9c5,183$458 inLost-$458.2140%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes3c4,290$137 inLost-$137.012437%17 W · 226 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5334…5d57backed Yes9c2,500$235 inLost-$235616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick8cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc54a…ead9backed Yes10c1,257$124 inLost-$124.1318618.3%34 W · 152 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb59…4e58backed Yes6c1,137$70 inLost-$7030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes6c1,000$60 inLost-$60458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+61%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a8…f9edbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost-$8040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes3c947.24$32 inLost-$31.8126112.6%33 W · 228 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-55.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2459…8d76backed Yes6c832.23$48 inLost-$48.222615.4%4 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes8c541.67$43 inLost-$43.1899619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x320a…64aabacked Yes11c500$55 inLost-$55100%0 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1f9…2c50backed Yes12c350$41 inLost-$40.6633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77a8…730fbacked Yes11c326.8$36 inLost-$36.19616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-49.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc933…8527backed Yes10c290$29 inLost-$2915921.4%34 W · 125 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xebb0…64c0backed Yes13c219.05$29 inLost-$28.74520%1 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-68.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc369…4e87backed Yes9c200$18 inLost-$188013.8%11 W · 69 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick9cpaid+52%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes11c194$22 inLost-$21.6410224.5%25 W · 77 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-33%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x105a…e06fbacked Yes14c181.47$26 inLost-$2670%0 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xabe4…1996backed Yes10c166$17 inLost-$16.63815.8%6 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2104…a495backed Yes11c153$16 inLost-$16.121047.7%8 W · 96 L-8.4wins-0.08per pick16cpaid-45.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes12c136.37$16 inLost-$15.7817216.9%29 W · 143 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-48.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f19…aec2backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102532%8 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick27cpaid-32.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa557…5e8abacked Yes11c100$11 inLost-$11119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-65%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x774f…ea29backed Yes10c100$10 inLost-$102020%4 W · 16 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-57.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x582a…690bbacked Yes10c100$10 inLost-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe62e…0b0fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost-$13.5616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-65.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.