Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd902c0d770b7be48e1a44ea83fabf64e9f754ceb87af2d316b7bceeff920c12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $148,873
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $160,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $148,873 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 164 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 44c | 11,790$5,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,589.2 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 75c | 5,899$4,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,473.96 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 54c | 5,875$3,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,705.76 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d92…4b39backed No | 26c | 5,622$1,488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,487.78 | 51 | 13.7%7 W · 44 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed No | 17c | 5,200$906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 23c | 4,249$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,269.73 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 15c | 3,240$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,747.41 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 45c | 2,426$1,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.84 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 32c | 2,282$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,542.11 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,220$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,119.48 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed Yes | 30c | 2,121$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.47 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…afc6backed Yes | 79c | 1,902$1,504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 58c | 1,844$1,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 32c | 1,638$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,110.68 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 48c | 1,515$723 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$722.61 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c1…1215backed Yes | 63c | 1,505$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.23 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,390 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 53c | 1,446$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$674.99 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 46c | 1,281$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.65 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 54c | 1,200$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$553 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…8441backed Yes | 73c | 1,200$875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 60c | 1,118$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$446.63 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7961…2da2backed Yes | 11c | 1,096$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$980.12 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 24c | 1,048$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.49 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2462…3f8dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,046$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$746.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 42c | 977.58$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.87 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes | 42c | 943.13$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 56c | 916.61$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.03 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff3e…c6e3backed Yes | 48c | 906.01$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 78c | 865.15$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.33 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 26c | 735.56$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.23 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 45c | 733.77$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89dc…e209backed Yes | 74c | 694.89$513 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.9 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 47c | 689$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.38 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7d…3bb1backed No | 24c | 684.5$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.94 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 34c | 633.19$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.99 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f69…9c7abacked No | 32c | 632.1$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.23 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 38c | 621.75$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.87 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 48c | 589$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.84 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed No | 24c | 555.4$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.3 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed Yes | 76c | 550.99$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 48c | 545.01$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.62 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x141c…7154backed No | 24c | 533$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 75 | 45.3%34 W · 41 L | +10.5wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e1…f770backed No | 41c | 531.41$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1820…e3f7backed No | 50c | 515$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.8 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…66dabacked No | 29c | 493.25$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed4c…e964backed Yes | 25c | 486.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.35per pick | 15cpaid | +138.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…9f7ebacked Yes | 79c | 482.16$381 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 65c | 462.5$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 450.21$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.68 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f2…7862backed No | 31c | 446$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.2 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +10.2wins | +0.17per pick | 26cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 33c | 423.9$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.65 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 37c | 419.83$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.5 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 49c | 409.99$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.13 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 44c | 398.88$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.72 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…9107backed Yes | 9c | 387.57$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +444.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x138d…24febacked Yes | 29c | 385.71$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.24 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +40.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 52c | 384.26$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.82 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 67c | 369.68$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.52 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…6518backed Yes | 75c | 359.39$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 44c | 351.47$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.47 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 44c | 350$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe7f…4856backed Yes | 80c | 313.95$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.95 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6481…55b3backed Yes | 67c | 313.52$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa444…f55dbacked Yes | 80c | 310.18$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8505…79f2backed Yes | 16c | 300$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 14cpaid | +189.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed No | 75c | 279.64$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.63 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b2…9a41backed Yes | 24c | 278.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d9…e579backed Yes | 64c | 271.13$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.8 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +21%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes | 44c | 262.14$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed No | 55c | 240.98$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.96 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 48c | 236.63$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.2 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 44c | 229.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.61 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 29c | 225.26$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.26 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dbe…1276backed Yes | 37c | 214$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe642…9440backed Yes | 19c | 209.39$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.55 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1af…d889backed Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac6…2192backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x190e…6bf6backed Yes | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 31c | 191.78$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.54 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 56c | 179.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.65 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…1194backed Yes | 74c | 173.24$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…d4a6backed Yes | 76c | 172.24$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc704…65a7backed Yes | 44c | 168.07$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.78 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -38%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked No | 20c | 161.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.58 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…15cdbacked Yes | 34c | 157.5$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 39c | 157.15$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.26 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 64c | 140.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.67 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 27c | 136.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.6 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa607…3181backed Yes | 15c | 130.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9f…bca4backed Yes | 29c | 126.33$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa593…824ebacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 12cpaid | +127.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc490…6507backed Yes | 32c | 124$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.62 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…2da7backed Yes | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…148cbacked Yes | 68c | 116.79$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…ba4bbacked Yes | 32c | 115.73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe85b…ab6bbacked Yes | 77c | 114.9$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…aa21backed Yes | 47c | 114.75$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 15-22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.