Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcd2e5ee1d8eda4cd781edb4a7eda79926a1bf6293be83385565a40a6b43b9672
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,293
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,889
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,293 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xca9c…cfb0backed Yes | 0c | 5,919$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 4c | 4,252$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.73 | 87 | 5.7%5 W · 82 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 7c | 4,089$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.04 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 2,110$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.8 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75da…4688backed Yes | 1c | 2,037$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 27cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 1,686$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.12 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd10…9337backed Yes | 6c | 1,623$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 12c | 1,533$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.22 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 8c | 1,531$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.93 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 11c | 1,326$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.25 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 12c | 1,290$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.1 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes | 2c | 1,100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 104 | 4.8%5 W · 99 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +55.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd34…1b66backed Yes | 1c | 1,036$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x841d…5e2cbacked Yes | 2c | 998.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 30c | 980.39$292 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.79 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 13c | 970.56$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.21 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 7c | 916.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.88 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66b6…c841backed Yes | 25c | 887.46$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 11c | 862.05$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.17 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 782.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.54 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 11c | 778.25$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.4 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 19c | 714.66$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.87 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 8c | 686.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.58 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 4c | 681.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 11c | 667.92$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.95 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 16c | 658.95$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.14 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 22c | 656.28$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 19c | 650.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.8 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ec…2868backed Yes | 15c | 644.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76eb…525abacked Yes | 13c | 571.54$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7dd…1e23backed Yes | 18c | 555.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c1…a743backed Yes | 18c | 542$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.32 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 33cpaid | -84.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 17c | 516.23$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.87 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc51…4287backed Yes | 20c | 512.47$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7b…154bbacked Yes | 5c | 499.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 33cpaid | +53.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa71…11c7backed Yes | 20c | 493.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82d4…9107backed Yes | 13c | 486$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +444.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba3…6055backed Yes | 14c | 474.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.49 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8183backed Yes | 22c | 462.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 18c | 444.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 30c | 441.71$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.84 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked No | 79c | 440$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.76 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…2114backed Yes | 4c | 433$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…15cdbacked Yes | 13c | 413.94$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 80c | 413.4$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.15 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 17c | 407$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.45 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 10c | 394.98$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.16 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 31c | 380.56$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.8 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc24b…2f32backed Yes | 12c | 378.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +276.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 9c | 332.2$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.78 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…d5c3backed Yes | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +210.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c13…8983backed Yes | 17c | 291$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 15c | 280$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c44…1b21backed Yes | 14c | 263.93$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2967…4ae7backed Yes | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 14c | 243$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 10c | 221.15$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 12c | 215.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 17c | 205.78$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.4 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.19 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x320a…64aabacked Yes | 16c | 191.83$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 19c | 188.05$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6478…548fbacked Yes | 11c | 172$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 75c | 167.39$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.47 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 15c | 165.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 15c | 151.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 14c | 150$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 13c | 147.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.26 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98e…485dbacked Yes | 15c | 140.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 17c | 135.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12e1…51f6backed Yes | 8c | 130$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 75 | 12%9 W · 66 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 19c | 128.75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2735…1194backed Yes | 12c | 120.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed Yes | 17c | 118$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x719d…4e73backed Yes | 16c | 110.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6f…7cdabacked Yes | 12c | 110$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3590…148cbacked Yes | 15c | 105.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…38eabacked Yes | 15c | 103.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34f7…603abacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d22…4dbbbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2370…0e10backed Yes | 17c | 99.8$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c1…5d6fbacked Yes | 23c | 87.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…30d0backed Yes | 12c | 87.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -73.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f59…4310backed Yes | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…aa21backed Yes | 17c | 72.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd11e…b086backed Yes | 30c | 66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ff7…9a7cbacked Yes | 27c | 55.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69a4…bba9backed No | 79c | 37.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 15-22?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.