Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1c7425a75b80e01684e9179882063ddc287618e8c01706c7a3d08f7241e6a643
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,892
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,192
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,892 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x63f3…b6c8backed Yes | 0c | 8,338$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fac…afa0backed Yes | 0c | 5,108$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3817…1574backed Yes | 10c | 4,681$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,696$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.23 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4023…ee68backed Yes | 0c | 2,559$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 13c | 2,501$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.91 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2459…8d76backed Yes | 5c | 970.7$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.11 | 26 | 15.4%4 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 13c | 873.22$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.48 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a8…f9edbacked Yes | 7c | 861.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.32 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e7…8ae4backed Yes | 14c | 739.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 11c | 732.29$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.53 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 4c | 587.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.28 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x105a…e06fbacked Yes | 15c | 576.93$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…9d42backed Yes | 9c | 569.96$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…4e58backed Yes | 10c | 524.09$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 10c | 482.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 102 | 24.5%25 W · 77 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 8c | 426.39$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b6…fa3dbacked Yes | 12c | 300$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28f0…ceabbacked Yes | 6c | 270$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.8 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +61%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 10c | 257.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.88 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 14c | 245$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 5c | 207$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 5c | 202.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 12c | 174$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 10c | 159.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.74 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…f927backed Yes | 12c | 130$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 53 | 26.4%14 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70de…5688backed Yes | 12c | 128.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad67…d6e0backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -65%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x774f…ea29backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…690bbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…0b0fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -65.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb0…64c0backed Yes | 15c | 85.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8196…0954backed Yes | 15c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 15-22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 15-22?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.