Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 15-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x446672ae1dbed02e208632d1dc6b7114d5b283a58425d60ee55e1a47f12b2ce7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $41,948
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf85f…d2cfbacked Yes | 28c | 5,890$1,675 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,675.41 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 11c | 4,617$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.2 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9521…766bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,592$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.55 | 243 | 7%17 W · 226 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…2ce1backed Yes | 26c | 2,378$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.16 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 9c | 1,913$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.16 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 14c | 1,711$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…9932backed Yes | 21c | 1,658$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…a32abacked Yes | 32c | 1,260$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd77…84edbacked Yes | 23c | 1,233$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.55 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +94.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x615b…7958backed Yes | 33c | 1,229$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$402.73 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -2.7wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 34c | 1,224$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.29 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc369…4e87backed Yes | 9c | 1,216$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.33 | 80 | 13.8%11 W · 69 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 9cpaid | +52%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc54a…ead9backed Yes | 10c | 1,201$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.15 | 186 | 18.3%34 W · 152 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01d6…bf6ebacked Yes | 35c | 1,168$407 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.38 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce73…70a9backed Yes | 33c | 1,012$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.12 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -32%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d92…4fc9backed Yes | 23c | 708.15$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.49 | 20 | 10%2 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x174a…f2cebacked Yes | 14c | 707.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6e…ab49backed Yes | 31c | 651.94$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad01…53e4backed Yes | 21c | 622.69$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.46 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3213…dd1fbacked Yes | 28c | 602.91$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.76 | 177 | 30.5%54 W · 123 L | -13.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 17c | 545.83$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.71 | 172 | 16.9%29 W · 143 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 22c | 512.57$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.07 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x414e…6518backed Yes | 12c | 496.15$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -33%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…0f73backed Yes | 22c | 483.41$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.35 | 261 | 12.6%33 W · 228 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6844…15cdbacked Yes | 15c | 406.37$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1166…94acbacked Yes | 27c | 366.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.9 | 43 | 14%6 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…6fa2backed No | 71c | 365$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.11 | 106 | 65.1%69 W · 37 L | +7.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e5…44d9backed Yes | 25c | 318.47$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -40%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 16c | 315.18$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.13 | 128 | 14.1%18 W · 110 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9595…1b16backed Yes | 29c | 313.58$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.94 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7b…b1a7backed Yes | 33c | 303.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.98 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c98…280fbacked Yes | 38c | 290.84$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 17cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 23c | 279.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 20c | 279.2$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 61c | 273.78$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.77 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbeb…e6e0backed Yes | 34c | 272.71$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.72 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2104…a495backed Yes | 16c | 271.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 104 | 7.7%8 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb289…16a5backed No | 77c | 259.74$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 75cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a9…66dabacked Yes | 24c | 254.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c31…5f1bbacked Yes | 16c | 250.81$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 67 | 25.4%17 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 15c | 250.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.66 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb8…3667backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16d6…7ba5backed Yes | 18c | 248.59$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 77c | 235.49$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…1f84backed Yes | 27c | 230.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2e…182dbacked Yes | 11c | 224.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 15c | 212$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8111…489dbacked Yes | 10c | 203.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 162 | 7.4%12 W · 150 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 14c | 196$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 139 | 17.3%24 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 27c | 185.19$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe6…b872backed Yes | 22c | 182.26$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.2 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe955…2114backed Yes | 11c | 172.72$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec6…4f34backed Yes | 17c | 165.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 58 | 12.1%7 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6e2…e42abacked Yes | 12c | 165$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.12per pick | 18cpaid | +64%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 12c | 154.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 6cpaid | +277.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf06c…2da7backed Yes | 37c | 136.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf75…7e38backed No | 77c | 136.13$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9af9…8077backed Yes | 34c | 135.75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe03b…38eabacked Yes | 11c | 134.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x030a…0994backed Yes | 30c | 133.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a72…12debacked Yes | 13c | 132.05$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 57 | 24.6%14 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -56%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf9…21f6backed Yes | 29c | 128.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.36 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 15c | 125.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b2…9a41backed Yes | 24c | 125$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 24cpaid | +107.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x649b…f9ccbacked No | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -75%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27db…e863backed Yes | 18c | 119.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.51 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1d…b57fbacked Yes | 9c | 114.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93de…bd2bbacked Yes | 28c | 110.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d46…cefbbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb232…8709backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…a3efbacked Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes | 15c | 99.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 52 | 9.6%5 W · 47 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -56%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2767…886abacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +76.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc745…9499backed Yes | 23c | 93.68$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 22c | 92.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614e…e5a0backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e12…141ebacked Yes | 11c | 90.75$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 24c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd7…547dbacked Yes | 33c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.32per pick | 49cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe58a…aed9backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…1655backed Yes | 25c | 82.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.36 | 157 | 17.8%28 W · 129 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9127…6ff3backed Yes | 23c | 78.35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad47…5a02backed Yes | 15c | 67.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97bc…f951backed Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Yes | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b43…ffa3backed Yes | 29c | 53.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77a8…730fbacked Yes | 23c | 51.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf16a…3c93backed No | 79c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0858…aa21backed Yes | 29c | 41.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…8ec1backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3461backed Yes | 31c | 32.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcce0…f6ddbacked No | 77c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e51…ca45backed No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times November 15-22?this page
- Will Elon tweet 200-224 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225-249 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250-274 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275-299 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times November 15-22?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450 or more times November 15-22?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet less than 200 times November 15-22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.