Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271a77a9d14e847bf4634ad5305ee95ab147d34df9fde2b99323b260a541907e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,535
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,682
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,535 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 31c | 900.08$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$616.92 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 296$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 6c | 253.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 52c | 189.96$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.91 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 35c | 171.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.6 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 69c | 168.83$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.49 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…0af7backed No | 74c | 134.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 328 | 72%236 W · 92 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 69c | 134.08$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.38 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 61c | 133.57$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 41c | 126.17$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 28c | 123.68$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.05 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 31c | 117.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.83 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 34c | 117.3$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 112.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.65 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 110$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.7 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 106.86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.77 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.01 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 15c | 99.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.06 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 69c | 87.78$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.57 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 77.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.88 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 15c | 75$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 44c | 67.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 27c | 62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.26 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 68c | 56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…65e1backed No | 58c | 52.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.86 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 65c | 51.33$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 40c | 50.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0c54…02e9backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01e3…c67fbacked No | 60c | 48.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.26 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 29c | 47.97$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.21 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 25c | 42.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 26c | 42.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 36c | 39.1$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed Yes | 37c | 39.04$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.72 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 40c | 38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 68c | 36.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 35.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.04 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 33.28$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 68c | 32.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 57c | 32.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 69c | 30.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 34c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…83b1backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 27.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…087bbacked No | 41c | 27.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -67%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 72c | 26.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…5115backed No | 68c | 20.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 19.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51dd…4053backed No | 67c | 19.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 403 | 52.4%211 W · 192 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 86-87°F on June 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on June 23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.