MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x271b1f3af2b2642d3ab7e2f27e74e466f007f718326c8c485a7bda8eb3caf1fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,462
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,440
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,462 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 80c | 278.95$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.46 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Tampa Bay Rays | 18c | 218.28$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.24 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 28c | 194.92$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.71 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ac…49f3backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 152.32$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.92 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa803…0f56backed Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 151.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -50.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Tampa Bay Rays | 51c | 142.89$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.33 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 47c | 133.98$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2000…df78backed Boston Red Sox | 50c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.6 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5672backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 103.03$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.91 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Tampa Bay Rays | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Boston Red Sox | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 31c | 93.15$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 86.58$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Tampa Bay Rays | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 952 | 52.9%504 W · 448 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c72…7e7ebacked Boston Red Sox | 36c | 44.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.74 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff1…2dd7backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 38.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +65.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Tampa Bay Rays | 66c | 15.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.