MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8a681fb26682f140c3df7bae9928cc64ec50f1376427899e1fd0f16df96afe3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $28,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,798
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $28,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Yes | 49c | 16,241$7,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,283.01 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 51c | 15,668$7,991 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,990.68 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed No | 43c | 3,847$1,646 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,645.52 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 55c | 2,886$1,587 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,587.3 | 880 | 46.4%408 W · 472 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 44c | 1,107$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.67 | 167 | 46.7%78 W · 89 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd30…6b15backed No | 8c | 1,042$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 7cpaid | +264.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 50c | 331.34$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.67 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Yes | 51c | 324.52$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.66 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked No | 51c | 288.63$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 418 | 36.4%152 W · 266 L | -31.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed No | 48c | 208.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked No | 52c | 201.76$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.91 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4159…beedbacked No | 50c | 194.52$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…90cfbacked No | 51c | 190.18$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.99 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed No | 55c | 170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.5 | 455 | 50.3%229 W · 226 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 52c | 147.55$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.55 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed No | 47c | 130$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.1 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed No | 47c | 127.55$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.95 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…3bafbacked Yes | 53c | 117.55$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.25 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,804 | 53.8%970 W · 834 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 12c | 94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 37c | 83.09$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Yes | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 47c | 75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed No | 55c | 73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.15 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 47c | 51$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa384…3c9fbacked No | 54c | 47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 281 | 47.7%134 W · 147 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7f…bb6dbacked No | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 147 | 51.7%76 W · 71 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…2888backed Yes | 47c | 42.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 129 | 24.8%32 W · 97 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ea5…6c53backed No | 51c | 40.76$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x948e…b321backed No | 51c | 38.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed No | 37c | 38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked No | 48c | 37.01$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked Yes | 55c | 36.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed No | 47c | 36.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.27 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3252…1d21backed No | 48c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 340 | 45%153 W · 187 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 43c | 27.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36a6…c85cbacked No | 72c | 26.73$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbf…7ce5backed No | 48c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 121 | 40.5%49 W · 72 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxthis page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.