MLB · resolved market
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2bf022209ef7d2c31df11962421d69f175135ec4e757c823bba336327f20b288
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $139,229
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $138,154
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $139,229 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Under | 47c | 101,219$47,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53,646.17 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 53c | 77,883$41,301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41,301.27 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e77…8c33backed Over | 53c | 20,000$10,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,600 | 283 | 50.9%144 W · 139 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…abafbacked Under | 46c | 12,453$5,729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,724.87 | 1,385 | 49.5%685 W · 700 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 8,567$4,613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,612.61 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…9486backed Under | 47c | 8,462$3,956 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,505.6 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 51c | 2,104$1,073 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,073.19 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 44c | 1,705$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$959.09 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 53c | 1,700$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 54c | 1,642$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.04 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Over | 53c | 1,621$859 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$859.16 | 776 | 47.4%368 W · 408 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 60c | 1,501$901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900.77 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 40c | 1,500$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.99 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 47c | 1,298$607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.64 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Over | 55c | 1,290$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$709.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 49c | 1,269$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$650.13 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 53c | 1,071$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.74 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Under | 44c | 899.34$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.63 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 57c | 865.88$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.4 | 687 | 69.6%478 W · 209 L | +60.4wins | +0.09per pick | 61cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 54c | 864.76$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.85 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…2a75backed Under | 44c | 672.67$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.7 | 291 | 47.1%137 W · 154 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 53c | 619.05$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.58 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 53c | 438.01$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.6 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca70…3bafbacked Under | 47c | 284.94$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.02 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ea…b781backed Under | 44c | 270.31$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.53 | 568 | 51.4%292 W · 276 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 45c | 191$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.3 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfb…f1ffbacked Over | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb2e…7821backed Over | 54c | 154.2$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.27 | 738 | 49.3%364 W · 374 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Over | 53c | 129$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.57 | 528 | 52.1%275 W · 253 L | +13.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked Under | 46c | 112.35$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Over | 58c | 99.98$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.99 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Over | 53c | 98.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.47 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Over | 51c | 91.18$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.5 | 674 | 53%357 W · 317 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 32c | 88.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 53c | 84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x435d…c52abacked Under | 47c | 70.85$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 674 | 44.1%297 W · 377 L | +27.8wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Under | 79c | 70$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Over | 51c | 69.81$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.6 | 342 | 55.3%189 W · 153 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 53c | 55$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 390 | 53.6%209 W · 181 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 25.4%33 W · 97 L | -17.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x164f…deb3backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x927c…a79abacked Under | 48c | 34.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…6471backed Over | 54c | 34.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.39 | 102 | 52%53 W · 49 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x762a…ed42backed Over | 55c | 32.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x409d…8f47backed Under | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 110 | 50.9%56 W · 54 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 79c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 45c | 29.39$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde36…f41cbacked Over | 52c | 29.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.15 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -12.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 67c | 27.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56cc…d589backed Over | 54c | 26.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 1,245 | 56.9%708 W · 537 L | +31.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 48c | 25.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12bd…aa80backed Under | 51c | 22.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 20.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.