MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31c525b0caf3705344a805de8657a282348f0e7f75dbd10eb3b7f39af088f63a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Tampa Bay Rays, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,793
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,037
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,793 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 452.5$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.94 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 444.52$284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Tampa Bay Rays | 4c | 416$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.64 | 142 | 35.9%51 W · 91 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 399.38$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.78 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49e…e5e8backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 384.62$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.62 | 95 | 45.3%43 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 328.93$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.42 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 35c | 324.31$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.51 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f56…348abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 290$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.4 | 419 | 36.5%153 W · 266 L | -31.1wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x39f8…badabacked Boston Red Sox | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 57cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 197$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 1,855 | 44%817 W · 1,038 L | -31.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 172.75$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.19 | 965 | 53%511 W · 454 L | +18.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd991…faeabacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 123.08$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 404 | 49.3%199 W · 205 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c58…e330backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 110$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.75 | 881 | 53.7%473 W · 408 L | +40.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6676…22f3backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 105.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.36 | 529 | 47.4%251 W · 278 L | -24.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 100$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6e…7c46backed Boston Red Sox | 76c | 92.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 674 | 49.4%333 W · 341 L | -28.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x273d…fb63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 28c | 70.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.62 | 106 | 58.5%62 W · 44 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c49…1862backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 353 | 53.8%190 W · 163 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 460 | 48.5%223 W · 237 L | -12.1wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3146…d153backed Tampa Bay Rays | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 30c | 49.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdef6…d18fbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 453 | 48.6%220 W · 233 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e8…e69cbacked Boston Red Sox | 69c | 35.75$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Boston Red Sox | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 313 | 50.2%157 W · 156 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…c3d9backed Boston Red Sox | 71c | 22.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 182 | 72%131 W · 51 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 22.14$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Tampa Bay Rays | 53c | 21.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98bd…781ebacked Boston Red Sox | 63c | 18.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8adc…ceafbacked Boston Red Sox | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 228 | 53.5%122 W · 106 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxBoston Red Sox won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 3.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: 1st 5 Innings O/U 6.5Over won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 8.5Under won
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 9.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red SoxYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.