Europa Conference League · resolved market
RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27231bf5786700cc769035fd4b8de26d1e27a1b1168b4e972463b65b94d0d860
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 7,435$5,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,742.26 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 25c | 2,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.02 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed Under | 76c | 1,729$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.95 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48d7…1bd1backed Over | 15c | 1,692$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 24c | 1,634$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.91 | 433 | 44.6%193 W · 240 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Over | 21c | 1,566$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.86 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 24c | 1,440$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.01 | 382 | 47.1%180 W · 202 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Over | 24c | 1,006$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.47 | 67 | 22.4%15 W · 52 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 219 | 25.6%56 W · 163 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over | 26c | 400$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 4c | 308.58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 24c | 282$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.68 | 180 | 49.4%89 W · 91 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 27c | 190$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.3 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 77c | 170.2$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.73 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bb8…7471backed Over | 23c | 156.97$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 82 | 39%32 W · 50 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc554…00adbacked Under | 77c | 126.75$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.47 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Under | 76c | 124.36$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.36 | 172 | 49.4%85 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over | 28c | 89.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 24c | 82.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 266 | 47.4%126 W · 140 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 76c | 79.91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.18 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc119…7d4dbacked Over | 16c | 77.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 72c | 76.56$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc91…0fdbbacked Over | 27c | 72.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 25c | 63.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27cf…979abacked Over | 28c | 57.14$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 73c | 42.8$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 45 | 80%36 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 77cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 78c | 41.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3a5…ea0cbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed Under | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.1 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 72c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 73c | 19.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 168 | 56.5%95 W · 73 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 77c | 15.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 384 | 53.1%204 W · 180 L | +11.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 3.5this page
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 1.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 2.5Under won
- RC Celta de Vigo vs. PAOK: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: PAOK (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: PAOK (-2.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)PAOK won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.