NHL · resolved market
Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x278e31f40d32ae76397a692779f01ab78041e43b0396e9026a1bf26115e867c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,045
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,203
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,045 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf46f…0f6dbacked Yes | 6c | 7,896$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Yes | 6c | 7,544$432 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.64 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…7be9backed Yes | 4c | 6,486$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.59 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes | 7c | 4,939$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 2c | 3,050$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.55 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 4cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd5…366ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,037$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,713$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe725…e5b9backed Yes | 7c | 2,700$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Yes | 4c | 2,215$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.98 | 103 | 36.9%38 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.11per pick | 26cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…6b90backed Yes | 6c | 1,570$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 8c | 1,314$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c2…4933backed Yes | 6c | 1,179$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.46 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -69%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 1,107$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes | 7c | 1,050$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…c503backed Yes | 4c | 899.97$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.1 | 137 | 49.6%68 W · 69 L | +7.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed Yes | 6c | 640.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Yes | 4c | 523.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccc…e7e8backed Yes | 7c | 517.13$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.03 | 274 | 45.6%125 W · 149 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…b44bbacked Yes | 3c | 416.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…5732backed Yes | 6c | 403.31$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…11e7backed Yes | 4c | 384.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes | 3c | 369.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e28…4cc7backed Yes | 4c | 358.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.21per pick | 19cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Yes | 6c | 356.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8266…c472backed Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +126.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0859…7aacbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +192.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe063…4de6backed Yes | 20c | 251.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +129.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44c9…ca41backed Yes | 11c | 163.09$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30c8…39c4backed Yes | 6c | 156.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c20…a6d7backed Yes | 7c | 153.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 11cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc91c…5d1dbacked Yes | 16c | 94.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +138%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?this page
- Will Austria win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?Yes won
- Will Germany win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Slovakia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.