NHL · resolved market
Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7a6384dd5bb2e99425f0a661912eaedc3ebff25702cb7512d6f3eae06467936
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,628
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,905
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,628 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1aea…10c9backed Yes | 1c | 14,924$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -81%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…7be9backed Yes | 1c | 11,374$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.89 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca0…140ebacked Yes | 0c | 10,926$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa583…b44bbacked Yes | 2c | 9,129$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 5,007$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.65 | 31 | 0%0 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 3,915$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.25 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 2c | 3,195$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.53 | 996 | 38.2%380 W · 616 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes | 2c | 3,093$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.14 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed Yes | 3c | 2,943$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.72 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcef8…a4edbacked Yes | 2c | 2,746$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.39 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.26per pick | 34cpaid | +37.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8a…65c0backed Yes | 3c | 2,433$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe091…163fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,498$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4129…ce4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,316$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,264$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 99 | 35.4%35 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,213$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.91 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…a0bfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,147$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebd5…094cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,116$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 308 | 45.8%141 W · 167 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7194…3131backed Yes | 3c | 1,073$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 2c | 1,050$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 181 | 36.5%66 W · 115 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70e0…6821backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd15…4a07backed Yes | 2c | 999.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54f0…7a91backed Yes | 2c | 883.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 33 | 27.3%9 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -28%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf26…0416backed Yes | 2c | 865.89$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe079…e93fbacked Yes | 4c | 638.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbb…77eebacked Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f1e…f334backed Yes | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9078…f1d7backed Yes | 3c | 490.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?this page
- Will Austria win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Canada win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Czechia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Denmark win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Finland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?Yes won
- Will Germany win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Latvia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Slovakia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Slovenia win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Sweden win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will Switzerland win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
- Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.