TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Will United States win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$62,492
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,665

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,492 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2936…7be9backed Yes4c12,205$453 inLost-$453.071921.1%4 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick15cpaid-39.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f7…4ef7backed Yes4c5,019$217 inLost-$216.66270%0 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…28bdbacked Yes4c4,500$162 inLost-$161.73450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe725…e5b9backed Yes7c4,094$270 inLost-$269.711010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6db9…4ab5backed Yes3c3,489$98 inLost-$97.69812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick19cpaid-28.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd604…cb5fbacked Yes3c3,421$110 inLost-$110.184438.6%17 W · 27 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-29.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bd5…366ebacked Yes3c3,372$107 inLost-$106.71540%2 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick30cpaid-21%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed Yes2c2,600$54 inLost-$53.710336.9%38 W · 65 L+10.9wins+0.11per pick26cpaid+2.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7630…cfb0backed Yes4c2,284$100 inLost-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdca0…140ebacked Yes3c2,232$67 inLost-$67.350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1aea…10c9backed Yes6c1,567$100 inLost-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick14cpaid-81%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ca…a1b4backed Yes3c1,437$46 inLost-$45.983630.6%11 W · 25 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-47.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,384$40 inLost-$40.1522516.4%37 W · 188 L-1.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-21.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f1e…f334backed Yes3c1,257$44 inLost-$44100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85eb…d068backed Yes7c1,234$86 inLost-$86.41241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick30cpaid-3.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf524…8178backed Yes4c1,048$39 inLost-$38.92425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-59.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f3f…64a2backed Yes3c617.7$20 inLost-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick8cpaid+75.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Yes3c600$18 inLost-$18.2599638.2%380 W · 616 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9c1…c1b8backed Yes7c400.43$28 inLost-$28.03425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-52.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e28…4cc7backed Yes4c360.67$13 inLost-$12.94540%2 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.21per pick19cpaid+61.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec4e…8bf0backed Yes12c294.07$35 inLost-$34.821323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+13.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1fad…7d0ebacked Yes7c285.71$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x13d0…5da3backed Yes7c200$14 inLost-$1420%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed Yes6c196.13$11 inLost-$11666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+23.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c20…a6d7backed Yes6c188$11 inLost-$10.7425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick11cpaid-18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.