Ligue 1 · resolved market
Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2797335e16cda37f469e4e2fe789ee50b16a361121b1d2c99bb44422a1fdc6cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- FC Nantesof Toulouse FC, FC Nantes
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,025
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,793
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,025 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec92…6b59backed Toulouse FC | 1c | 7,777$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b2…8681backed Toulouse FC | 70c | 1,010$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$706.8 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed FC Nantes | 30c | 978.7$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.09 | 43 | 48.8%21 W · 22 L | +4.2wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Toulouse FC | 77c | 282.96$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.95 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Toulouse FC | 60c | 265.91$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Toulouse FC | 80c | 132.21$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 73 | 52.1%38 W · 35 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Toulouse FC | 68c | 122$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe75e…4b67backed Toulouse FC | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked FC Nantes | 50c | 91$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3596…6c81backed Toulouse FC | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked FC Nantes | 26c | 59.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked FC Nantes | 43c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.85 | 156 | 49.4%77 W · 79 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…54e8backed Toulouse FC | 57c | 38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)this page
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.