Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x616e8108997b556643a60ad0d0a172b7cc23c2614a5e1c3b7e7e52ac6692769c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,796
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,209
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,796 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 55c | 1,213$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.26 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 24c | 977$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.33 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 32c | 813$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.27 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4871…0742backed Over | 74c | 805.41$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 67cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb15c…604abacked Under | 45c | 595.09$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.3 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 78c | 556.32$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.93 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41ed…1da9backed Over | 76c | 440$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.46 | 109 | 52.3%57 W · 52 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 23c | 391.03$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.09 | 873 | 44.3%387 W · 486 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf00e…00f4backed Over | 77c | 391.03$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.09 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -3.1wins | -0.45per pick | 59cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x55e2…5fc9backed Over | 54c | 326$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.78 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.3wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5d79…33e4backed Over | 57c | 325.89$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.01 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +164.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 27c | 297.41$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.88 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Over | 79c | 263$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 68cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d13…643cbacked Over | 72c | 250$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 59cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 26c | 235.43$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.85 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x573e…e08abacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +173%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…94ccbacked Over | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 25c | 202.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.11 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…1a5ebacked Over | 66c | 172.86$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -5.6wins | -0.33per pick | 57cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 76c | 154.99$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.46 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed Over | 67c | 148.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2025…db59backed Over | 75c | 144$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 93 | 55.9%52 W · 41 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3451…a6e1backed Over | 55c | 109.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.68 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Under | 25c | 84.93$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.28per pick | 15cpaid | +82.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 43c | 83.89$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.4wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 23c | 67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.59 | 296 | 37.5%111 W · 185 L | +15.9wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.04 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…37b6backed Over | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Over | 75c | 35.23$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.42 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Over | 58c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked Over | 76c | 17.86$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Over | 76c | 17.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6081…a770backed Over | 78c | 14.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.