Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x56c1576a0e83789275f23478e3997599d1ac9aee851b83072aa82ea3a366c715
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,472
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,156
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,472 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 32c | 3,153$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 70c | 1,365$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.73 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Under | 69c | 1,147$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.4 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +39%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 67c | 780.59$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.59 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 30c | 627.55$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.79 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Over | 32c | 299.21$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.75 | 51 | 27.5%14 W · 37 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 69c | 289.86$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.86 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 64cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 30c | 245.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 464 | 50.4%234 W · 230 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Under | 71c | 245.64$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 73c | 226.01$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.92 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 68c | 135$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 132 | 50.8%67 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 68c | 111.68$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.43 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 75c | 99.99$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 31c | 97.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.34 | 63 | 52.4%33 W · 30 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 24c | 87.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 593 | 48.4%287 W · 306 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 69c | 74.96$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +6.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 69c | 59.29$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Under | 72c | 54.8$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda3a…381fbacked Over | 28c | 54.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.34 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +68.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Under | 67c | 51.52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 227 | 45.8%104 W · 123 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 31c | 48.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 70c | 43.98$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 26 | 65.4%17 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 33c | 36.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 44.5%49 W · 61 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Over | 32c | 31.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -6.6wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 71c | 28.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Under | 69c | 25.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 101 | 45.5%46 W · 55 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5this page
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 0.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- FC Nantes vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: FC Nantes (-1.5)Toulouse FC won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-1.5)FC Nantes won
- Spread: Toulouse FC (-2.5)FC Nantes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.