Mls · resolved market
Will CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27bb7c352b5b14ffee891c73e50ba34fa0c95413c126abec97982d3efd203204
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,770
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 25c | 4,545$1,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,133.36 | 783 | 44.4%348 W · 435 L | -30.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 75c | 2,763$2,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695.15 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 2,750$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$664.63 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 76c | 2,092$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500.56 | 190 | 73.7%140 W · 50 L | +18.6wins | +0.10per pick | 64cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6580…6fa8backed Yes | 28c | 1,400$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392 | 40 | 17.5%7 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 23c | 1,216$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.67 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 74c | 1,082$797 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.96 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ce…fdcebacked No | 72c | 802.5$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.71 | 147 | 61.2%90 W · 57 L | +20.8wins | +0.14per pick | 47cpaid | +43.6%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x36d8…c7c7backed Yes | 24c | 356$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.44 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +2.7wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Yes | 27c | 323.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 392 | 34.4%135 W · 257 L | -47.2wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -31%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 22c | 323.73$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.07 | 205 | 35.1%72 W · 133 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Yes | 17c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 413 | 39%161 W · 252 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 19c | 193.96$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.19 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x027c…b158backed Yes | 13c | 174.13$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +400%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Yes | 13c | 170.87$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 39 | 23.1%9 W · 30 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed No | 73c | 132.82$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.93 | 195 | 60%117 W · 78 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed No | 55c | 119.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +80.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce3…6011backed Yes | 26c | 116.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x579a…9908backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.11 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bc88backed Yes | 39c | 107.34$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -4.0wins | -0.20per pick | 50cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed No | 75c | 100.77$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed No | 76c | 100.34$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.35 | 122 | 54.1%66 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked No | 76c | 100.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked No | 76c | 100.29$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb03…5ae4backed Yes | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 75c | 87.23$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.9 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 25c | 84.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 23c | 83.63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 372 | 49.2%183 W · 189 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9720…2c24backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 23c | 75.27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…41f2backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +60%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked No | 75c | 66.69$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked No | 61c | 66.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x55ab…4f88backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d72…5f50backed No | 56c | 53.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.9 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 73c | 53.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.24 | 229 | 46.7%107 W · 122 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510e…b8e0backed No | 61c | 49.26$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.26 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed No | 74c | 48$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.48 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed No | 72c | 44.74$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.45 | 154 | 58.4%90 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed No | 73c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed No | 73c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 94 | 58.5%55 W · 39 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…04bebacked No | 73c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aee…bddfbacked Yes | 30c | 37.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed No | 71c | 34.24$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa42c…b22ebacked No | 71c | 34.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 30 | 60%18 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed No | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 248 | 59.3%147 W · 101 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked No | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 222 | 63.1%140 W · 82 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…89b1backed No | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed No | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6569…7600backed No | 72c | 33.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 73c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6c…e09cbacked No | 77c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.15 | 94 | 52.1%49 W · 45 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2373…a1f3backed No | 77c | 26.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26dd…0249backed No | 78c | 25.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.71 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 52 | 55.8%29 W · 23 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…98fcbacked No | 46c | 21.74$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06e7…3acabacked No | 72c | 20.83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c69…2b8dbacked No | 77c | 16.71$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 60 | 56.7%34 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CF Montréal vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?this page
- Will CF Montréal win on 2026-04-11?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-04-11?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.